National News Australia

Breaking records and breaking hearts – Australian Winter Crop Forecast

Published

2 years ago

27 October 2022

JeffG

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Breaking records and breaking hearts – Australian Winter Crop Forecast

Rabobank

Australia is on track to harvest a near-record winter grain crop of 61.9 million tonnes, according to Rabobank’s 2022/23 Australian Winter Crop Forecast. But what will be a record for some farmers will be heartbreak for others, due to the impacts of excessive rainfall on grain volume, yield and quality in parts of the country.

In the newly-released report, the specialist agribusiness bank says despite the weather challenges, the nation is set to harvest its third consecutive bumper winter crop. Forecast to be down only one per cent on last year – which broke all-time production records – the total grain crop is estimated to be 41 per cent above the five-year average.

But it won’t be good news for all, the report says. While farmers in some parts of Australia will “reap record or near-record crops”, others in areas across New South Wales and Victoria are facing “yield, volume and quality downgrades due to excessive rains, washed out fields and unharvestable crops”.

Report author, RaboResearch agriculture analyst Dennis Voznesenski said while it was too soon to quantify the impact of heavy rainfall and flooding in recent days in Victoria on the state’s overall production, “there has been significant impact to yields on low-lying crops with many under water in central and northern Victoria, however crops on rolling and rising country have fared better”.

Nationally, Rabobank forecasts wheat production to come in at 35.5 million tonnes – down two per cent on last year, but 47 per cent above the five-year average. Barley production is expected to reach a record 14.8 million tonnes, up seven per cent on last season and 31 per cent above the five-year average. The canola crop is forecast to reach a record 7.2 million tonnes, also a seven per cent increase on the previous year and a whopping 81 per cent up on the five-year average.

Mr Voznesenski said “on the whole”, Western Australia and South Australia are set to break production records.

“While Victoria was on track to break production records until last week, we are going to have to wait for all the forecast rainfall to come through and for waters to recede to see the full impact of the rains on production,” he said. “The unfavourable conditions mean harvest is likely to be drawn out into January.”

He said a substantial increase on last year’s rainfall across the Mallee and Wimmera in Victoria and Murray Mallee in South Australia has set up some farmers in these regions to harvest all-time record crop yields.

Queensland is expected to see a large, but not record, crop harvested.

NSW farmers, however, especially those in central regions, are battling conditions even wetter than last year, Mr Voznesenski said.

“Excessive rain leading into harvest followed significant issues at planting, where some farmers replanted up to three times or had to abandon hectares all together,” he said.

“Across New South Wales, parts of Victoria and southern Queensland, we expect to see considerably less hectares harvested than were planted due to excessive rains either at planting, during the growing season or leading right into harvest.

“And the challenge of a wet harvest will be compounded by labour shortages, with an estimated 30 per cent of farms in Queensland and 27 per cent in NSW having to change harvest strategies as a result of insufficient labour.”

States

Rabobank forecasts WA to harvest a record total crop of 23.47 million tonnes, up two per cent on last year’s record (as reported by ABARES).

South Australia is also preparing for another record harvest this season, of almost 10.7 million tonnes, one per cent above the last record set in 2016/17 and a 27 per cent increase on last year.

Until the recent flooding events, Victoria’s total winter crop had been expected to come in at 11.5 million tonnes, an all-time record exceeding 2020/21 (the last record) by 17 per cent and up on last year by 26 per cent.

“Too much of a good thing” though has robbed Queensland of a record year, the report says, with excessive rainfall through the season resulting in many regions harvesting 90 per cent of planted crop hectares, with some further south harvesting only 80 to 85 per cent. At a forecast total crop harvest of 2.6 million tonnes for the season, the state’s production will be six per cent down on the previous year.

With NSW hardest hit by excess rain throughout the season, the state’s grain and oilseed production is expected to come in 28 per cent below last year, at 13.6 million tonnes.

“Depending on the region, only between 75 to 92 per cent of the state’s planted grains and oilseed hectares will actually be harvested,” Mr Voznesenski said.

Excessive rainfall had also weighed on NSW crop yields, while prevalent weed and disease issues had been compounded by farmers not being able to get on to paddocks to spray because of wet conditions.

“Crop quality has also been significantly impacted, with even more feed-quality wheat now expected from the state than last year,” he said.

Exports

With another bumper national harvest on the way, Australia will have plentiful grain and oilseeds for the export market, the Rabobank report says. However, the ability to supply world markets will be limited by supply chain bottlenecks, both in regional areas and with capacity at Australian ports.

The exportable surplus in Australia from the 2022/23 harvest is expected to exceed the nation’s official estimated 2021 national export capacity of 47.5 million tonnes, Mr Voznesenski said. “When an approximate figure is also added for still unsold 2021/22 crop, the exportable surplus could rise to 53.5 million tonnes, and this does not include an unknown volume of grain owned by the grain trade itself,” he said.

Commodity price outlook

For Australia’s grains and oilseeds, the report sees the strong local supply limiting the potential of prices moving above current levels for a sustained time during the harvest period.

“With another near-record crop in the process of being harvested, and still significant carry-over from last year, we expect local prices to be pressured below global levels during the key harvest window from now until January and likely into late March,” Mr Voznesenski said.

“Growers may see some local price upside between late March and May, ahead of the northern hemisphere harvest. But from late quarter two next year – when northern hemisphere grain starts coming on to the market – and with an expected rise in the Australian dollar, we are likely to see downward pressure on local prices.”

Global grain prices are expected to remain above the five-year average for the next 12 months as supplies from Ukraine and Russia continue to be unpredictable and global stocks below average, but prices are not forecast “under the base (most likely) case” to head back up to record levels seen between March and June this year, Mr Voznesenski said.

Locally for wheat, Rabobank forecasts national average APW1 Track/Free-In-Store prices to trade between A$390 and A$420 a tonne over the next 12 months, “with upside towards the end of quarter one and the beginning of quarter two 2023”.

For feed barley, national average Track/ Free-In-Store prices are expected to trade between A$320 and A$350 a tonne.

Strong global and local supply of canola is bearish for prices, however, there may be improvements in demand next year with proposed changes to biofuel mandates in the EU and a potential reduction in Canada’s export capacity later in the year, the report says. Prices for non-GM canola track/FIS are expected to trade between A$700 and A$830 a tonne in 2023.

Pulses are “still looking for love”, the report says, with more than 18 per cent of last year’s Australian pulse harvest estimated to be unsold, with this figure significantly higher in Queensland.

“A large rebound in lentil production in Canada is expected to weigh on prices over the next 12 months, while economic and political turmoil in Australia’s second-largest export market of Sri Lanka will also limit demand in 2023,” Mr Voznesenski said. “However, in the short term, recent rains and damage to the Victorian lentil crop could see price support.”

The outlook for chickpeas remains largely bearish, though early next year may see some upside from increased purchases from Bangladesh ahead of Ramadan.”

Farm inputs

Farm input costs – which have risen substantially over the past year – could weigh significantly on farm margins ”moving forward”, Mr Voznesenski said.

However, while there is notable risk for urea prices increasing, reprieve may be due for other fertilisers and agrochemicals in the near term.

Mr Voznesenski said with urea production significantly dependent on natural gas – which has been skyrocketing in price in Europe – the bank sees urea prices as having the largest “upside risk” moving into 2023.

For phosphates, there has been “demand destruction”, the report says, with high prices resulting in lower usage and larger than initially anticipated inventory, especially in the Americas, which is indicative of further price declines.

“The downward slide in global potash prices is likely to persist for the coming months,” Mr Voznesenski said, “with regional benchmarks taking a cue from further anticipated weakness in the Americas. Still, geopolitics around Russia and Belarus can definitely impact prices of both phosphate and potash.”

An expansion of agrochemical production capacity in China has seen prices decline this year, the Rabobank report says. “And under our base case, we expect further downside moving into next year,” Mr Voznesenski said.

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National News Australia

Muval migration data for the first six months of 2024

Published

5 days ago

19 October 2024

Liam

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Muval migration data for the first six months of 2024

According to national online removalist booking platform Muval, which has the most up-to-date internal migration data showing where Australians are moving, Melbourne is the number one capital to move to in the first half of 2024, with inbound traffic peaks in February and April catapulting the city into positive net migration for the first time since before COVID.

The latest moving data also shows that rising cost of living pressures continue to take their toll on Sydney and increasingly Brisbane, with the river city dipping as low as -13% into negative territory this year.

While rental moves are traditionally local, within the same suburb or neighbouring suburbs, Australians aren’t hesitating to cross borders in search of more affordable housing, more lucrative work or a cheaper lifestyle to maintain their current living standards.

With that said, industry-wide moving numbers are down around 20% on the same time last year. Overall, Muval reports that the current macro-economic climate of higher interest rates, tight housing affordability and housing shortages are having a cooling effect on moving generally.

As people typically enquire about removalist up to 30 days before they move, Muval’s data is a proven early indicator of moving trends in Australia.

Muval – Net Migration June 2024

Melbourne

For the first time since January 2020, Melbourne entered positive net migration in 2024. Off the back of a rise in inbound moves (30% of all major metro moves were to Melbourne in February and April) and a fall in outbound moves, down to 25% of all major metro moves in February which is the lowest on record, the city finally slipped back into positive territory with +13% net migration in February and +2% in April. The last time the city had positive net migration was before the pandemic (+3% Jan 2020) and it fell as low as -61% in August 2020 and -64% in September 2021 when thousands fled lockdowns in the city. When Melbourne’s outbound enquiries veered down, Brisbane and Sydney’s spiked, suggesting the traffic is flowing down from the increasingly expensive northern states.

Muval - Outbound migration data June 2024

Muval – Outbound June 2024

Brisbane

A rise in the cost of living in Brisbane, including skyrocketing housing prices up more than 60% since the onset of COVID and a rise in unit rentals of more than 50%, is affecting the city’s appeal as a place to live. Brisbane’s outbound moving enquiries have jumped to their highest level, reaching 23% of all major metro outbound moves in April. Averaging 22% of inbound metro moves in the first six months of the year, Brisbane came close to Sydney when it dipped to just 20% in January and February (Sydney accounted for 19% and 18% respectively). After peaking at +123% positive net migration in September 2021, Brisbane teetered around zero in the first six months of this year before tumbling to a record low of -13% in April. While it remains the second most popular city to move to behind Melbourne, Brisbane’s pandemic popularity has been replaced with an air of unaffordability.

Muval - Inbound Migartion data June 2024

Muval – Inbound June 2024

Sydney

Sydney has experienced a slight increase in inbound traffic during the first six months of this year, accounting for as much as 19% of all major metro inbound moves in January and June (the highest number on record for Sydney), to cement its place as the third most popular city to move to. This is a change from last year when Perth was third behind Melbourne and Brisbane. With an average of 30% of all major metro outbound moves coming from Sydney in the first six months of 2024, the Harbour City continues to boast the unfortunate title of biggest resident exodus. While there are glimmers of hope, this outbound movement has kept Sydney firmly in negative net migration between -41% and -52% in the first half of the year.

Perth

For the first time in years, Perth appears to be losing its strong grip on positive net migration. It is still the highest in the country, but it’s spiralling fast to pre-pandemic levels as interest in the state tapers off, perhaps as rents rise at a record rate. Perth saw the highest annual rent increase of all capital cities in the last year (up 14 per cent year-on-year), as well as the highest rise in rent values since the onset of the pandemic at nearly 60 per cent. After a 2021 pandemic peak of +181%, net migration dropped to +10% in June, off the back of low inbound traffic of just 14% and high outbound traffic of 12%. Perth hasn’t had outbound traffic consistently in double digits since the start of 2020, it sat between 7-9% in 2022 and 2023.

Adelaide

After consistently sitting around 9-10% in 2023, Adelaide’s outbound migration appears to be slowing in the first six months of 2024, dipping as low as 7% in April and staying on 8% in May and June. However, inbound traffic hasn’t picked up this year and at 7% in April and May, it’s Adelaide’s lowest share of inbound major metro moves on record. After entering negative territory in August 2022, the city remains in negative net migration in 2024 hovering between -7% (June) and -23% (February and May).

For more information visit muval.com.au

For more real estate news, click here.

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Port Macquarie

Call for more mates to support Port Macquarie’s Sailability

Published

4 weeks ago

27 September 2024

JeffG

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Call for more mates to support Port Macquarie’s Sailability

Vision available: https://tinyurl.com/mrz9nhz7

The Port Macquarie community group, Sailability, is calling for volunteers ahead of this year’s sailing season, as the club prepares to take to the Hastings River again on Wednesday 25 September.
Sailability is a volunteer organisation whose mission is to offer people with varying abilities freedom on the water.
The club uses a fleet of specially designed sailing dinghies with simplified controls and enhanced stability to hold weekly sailing days for people living with physical and mental disability.
The club received $55,920 from the NSW Government to extend its carpark and complete landscaping around its new boat shed and accessible amenities block, as well as to install six accessible picnic tables in McInherney Park.
The not-for-profit club is the only organisation of its kind in the area and its 80 volunteers cater to approximately 60 sailors each week.
The group provides its services at no charge, with sailors coming from disability support units at local schools in Port Macquarie, Wauchope, Laurieton and Kempsey, as well as disability service providers, aged care facilities and private enquiries.
Census statistics for show there are approximately 6,000 people with serious or profound disability in the Port Macquarie area, and the club struggles to meet the demand for its services.
People keen to get involved in volunteering with the club can attend McInherney Park on Wednesdays between September and May to learn more, or go to www.sailabilitypm.com.au and click the Contact Us tab.
Minister for Agriculture and Regional NSW, Tara Moriarty said:
“This fantastic community group is really making waves in terms of improving quality of life for people in the Port Macquarie area with disability.
“It’s wonderful to see people experience a sense of achievement and improved self-confidence and self-esteem through their participation in Sailability’s program.”
Parliamentary Secretary for Disability Inclusion, Liesl Tesch* said:
“Sailability is a beacon of hope and inclusion in Port Macquarie. By fostering a sense of belonging on the water, they’re not only enhancing the lives of people with disability but also enriching the entire community.”
“The amazing volunteers at Sailability do such important work helping build confidence and resilience for so many people in the region each week.”
*Liesl Tesch is a seven-time Paralympian including winning two gold medals in sailing
Sailability Port Macquarie volunteer Rick Eller said:
“The club has come a long way from humble beginnings when it launched in December 2012, we were using two borrowed boats at the time, we had a handful of volunteers, and we were borrowing life jackets from the SES or emergency services here in Port Macquarie.
“The best part about working for Sailability is the expressions and the smiles when the people who’ve been sailing come back to the pontoon, that’s what makes it all worthwhile.”
Sailability Port Macquarie Vice President Julie Constable said:
“It’s extremely important that people are aware that people with a disability are very able and keen to get out into society so something like this is off great benefit to the community.”

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Cowra

Teen charged with multiple property offences in Cowra – Operation Regional Mongoose

Published

4 weeks ago

26 September 2024

JeffG

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Teen charged with multiple property offences in Cowra – Operation Regional Mongoose

Tuesday, 24 September 2024 02:01:49 PM
A teen will face court charged following investigations into multiple property-related offences in the state’s central west.

Operation Regional Mongoose is a high-visibility police operation to tackle serious property-related crime, committed predominately by young offenders.

About 4.30am yesterday (Monday 23 September 2024), emergency services were call to the low level bridge adjacent to Grenfell Road, Cowra, following reports a Subaru sedan was well alight.

Officers attached to Chifley Police District attended and commenced an investigation into the circumstances surrounding the fire.

Checks revealed the car was allegedly stolen from a home on Liverpool Street, Cowra, between 7.30pm on Sunday (22 September 2024), and 4.30am yesterday (Monday 23 September 2024.

Following inquiries, about 2am today (Tuesday 24 September 2024), police were patrolling Young Street, Cowra, when they stopped and spoke to a 17-year-old boy sitting in a park.

The boy was subjected to a search, and police located gloves, a box cutter and keys to a Subaru.

He was taken to Cowra Police Station and charged with;

Steal motor vehicle
Aggravated break and enter dwelling in company steal
Take and drive conveyance without consent of owner
Custody of knife in public place
Possess housebreaking implements
Never licensed person drive vehicle on road
Goods in personal custody suspected being stolen, and
Commit S154C offence and disseminate.
The teen was refused bail to appear at a Children’s court today (Tuesday 24 September 2024).

Inquiries under Operation Regional Mongoose continue.

Anyone with information about Operation Regional Mongoose is urged to contact Crime Stoppers: 1800 333 000 or https://nsw.crimestoppers.com.au. Information is treated in strict confidence. The public is reminded not to report information via NSW Police social media pages.

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