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Real Estate

What does the latest RBA cash rate rise means for property prices, inflation and the risk of tipping into a recession? RMIT expert available for comment. – RMIT

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What does the latest RBA cash rate rise means for property prices, inflation and the risk of tipping into a recession? RMIT expert available for comment. – RMIT

An expert from RMIT is available to comment on the latest RBA cash rate rise and what it will mean for Australia’s housing market and the economy more broadly.

Dr Woon Weng Wong, Lecturer, School of Property Construction and Project Management, RMIT University 

woon-weng.wong@rmit.edu.au

Topics: Economics, Econometrics, Finance, Property, Quantitative analysis, Statistics

“The rising cash rate will undoubtedly have a negative impact on the residential property market. However, we are only just beginning to see the first signs of a gradual cooling off.

“Looking at our most basic measures like median house prices, the month of June recorded a 0.35% drop from the previous month across all capital cities. Melbourne experienced the greatest decline with a 0.66 percent drop. This is reflected in the auction clearance rates which was 55 percent in the week ending July 4, which is a considerable reduction compared to 74 percent during the same time last year.

“But if we look at the bigger picture, the property market is still running hot with national prices approximately 7.76 percent higher in June compared to the same time last year, with Sydney and Melbourne trailing at 5.41 percent and 3.85 percent respectively.

“And if we go even further back, comparing current prices to the start of the pandemic (circa January 2020), the national median is approximately 35 percent higher with Sydney and Melbourne at 37 percent and 22.5 percent respectively. What this means is that property markets are showing signs of a slowdown but these are relatively minor compared to the substantial gains experienced over the past couple of years.

“Further cash rate rises are expected for the remainder of the year as the RBA aggressively targets inflation, which does not appear to be abating anytime soon with the conflict in Eastern Europe, the energy crisis, labour shortages and recent extreme weather events continuing to wreak havoc on the Australian economy.

“However, the consensus seems to be that further rate rises may be less onerous with the target cash rate anticipated to be 2.1 percent by the year’s end. The current cash rate is 1.35 percent, so that only leaves 0.75 percent on the table over the next 6 months. The cash rate is expected to eventually settle at 2.5 percent by the middle of next year. House prices will likely continue their downward trajectory with modelling by the RBA’s latest financial stability review indicating a 15-20 percent decline over a two-year window based on the assumption of a 200 basis point rate rise.

“The only scenarios in which the RBA might reconsider its hawkish position are inflation being brought under control sooner than anticipated; or a recession develops. The inflation question does not have a simple answer requiring everything from supply chains being fixed to easing consumer demand and a moderating rental market.

“Even if these issues could be resolved, the ongoing conflict in Eastern Europe remains the proverbial elephant in the room. Since the conflict began, crude oil prices (WTI) have risen from approximately USD78 per barrel in January 2022 to its current level of USD110 per barrel. Furthermore, the gas crisis continues to plague Western Europe as the German led exodus scrambles to secure alternative sources in preparation for winter in the northern hemisphere. When and how hostilities will end remains unclear.

“On the recession front, if the situation in Eastern Europe is the proverbial elephant, then a recession is the proverbial whale. The risk of a recession is real but may be avoided so long as economic fundamentals remain strong.

“According to the latest ABS data, the unemployment rate remained at a record low of 3.9 percent in the month of May. This is in stark contrast to the 1991-92 recession ‘we had to have’ in which unemployment rates hovered around 8-10 percent. In a recent UBS panel discussion in Zurich, RBA Governor Phillip Lowe stated there was a “narrow path” for inflation to come down without tipping the economy into recession.”

 

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Transparency and Accountability in Building Approvals Key

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Transparency and Accountability in Building Approvals Key

 

The Master Builders Association of NSW (MBA) has commended the NSW Government’s initiative to enhance transparency and accountability in the building approvals process with the introduction of a new reporting dashboard and a statement of expectations.

MBA Executive Director Brian Seidler expressed strong industry support for these measures, which create a clear and accessible platform to report on average building approval and lodgement times.

“In the past, consumers and builders have struggled to access information about potential delays in their development applications. This initiative changes that,” Mr. Seidler said.

“The industry will now have access to information that allows for better coordination of projects. This is a model that should be replicated across the country.”

Mr. Seidler noted that the NSW Government is leading the way by implementing additional incentives and measures to assist councils in reducing approval times.

“The dashboard reveals that some council areas need to invest more resources in addressing approval backlogs, allowing builders to proceed with delivering new homes,” he added.

The MBA views this initiative as a significant step toward improving efficiency and accountability in the building industry, ultimately benefiting both builders and consumers.

 

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Protect Yourself Against Payment Redirection Scams

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Protect Yourself Against Payment Redirection Scams

 

Payment redirection scams, where scammers impersonate conveyancers or real estate agents to provide false account numbers and redirect payments, have become alarmingly prevalent. According to the latest figures from the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission (ACCC), Australians lost more than $3 billion to scammers in 2022, including significant losses from payment redirection scams.

Prevalence of Payment Redirection Scams

As house prices rise, scammers are using increasingly sophisticated methods to intercept electronic money transfers. These scams, often referred to as business email compromise scams, have resulted in losses of $225 million intended for conveyancers to purchase new homes. The ACCC’s Scamwatch receives an average of two reports a week related to these scams linked to real estate transactions.

Recent media reports highlight the severity of these scams. One case involved a homebuyer who inadvertently sent $284,000 to a scammer’s account after the email chain with his conveyancer was hacked. Another tragic instance saw a young couple lose their $25,000 house deposit to a property scam.

Steps to Avoid Payment Redirection Scams

Scammers are adept at hacking email accounts to impersonate conveyancers or real estate agents, providing false account numbers to divert funds. To protect yourself, follow these steps:

  1. Verify Email Addresses and Account Numbers: Even if you have been corresponding with a conveyancer for some time, double-check that the email address and account number are correct. Avoid hitting “reply” or clicking on links within emails, as hackers often alter just one letter in an email address to deceive you.
  2. Avoid Using Contact Information from Suspicious Emails: Never call the phone number provided in a suspect email. Instead, use a phone number you received independently and speak to the person you have been dealing with previously. Always double-check the account number before sending any money.
  3. Be Wary of Urgent Emails: If you receive an email that creates a sense of urgency, don’t rush. Verify the email’s authenticity by contacting the company directly, using a number you obtained earlier. If the email instructs you to change payment details, confirm with the company involved before making any changes.
  4. Follow Money Transfer Precautions: Law firms like Stacks Law Firm advise clients to always verify bank account details by phone before making any money transfers. They attach warnings about potential scams to their emails to alert clients to the risks.

What to Do if You Discover a Payment Redirection Scam

If you fall victim to a scam, contact your bank immediately. The bank may be able to stop the transfer if notified within three days. If you are unsatisfied with the bank’s response, seek legal advice. This is particularly advantageous if your conveyancer is associated with a law firm.

For additional support, the national cyber support service IDCARE can help victims develop a plan to mitigate the damage. The new National Anti-Scam Centre is also coordinating efforts to combat scammers. The ACCC offers numerous resources to educate Australians on avoiding scams and protecting themselves.

For more information, visit the ACCC’s Scamwatch website.

 

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Housing Policy Disaster: Property Approaches a Tipping Point

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Housing Policy Disaster: Property Approaches a Tipping Point

 

Experts predict the end of 20 per cent plus rent hikes, but the rental crisis is expected to persist as tenants compete for limited properties.

The Australian rental market is at a critical juncture. Vacancy rates have edged higher, and the pace of rental growth has slowed, but relief for renters remains distant. According to SQM Research, Australia’s rental vacancy rate increased slightly to 1.3 per cent in June from 1.2 per cent in May. Sydney’s vacancy rate rose to 1.7 per cent, Melbourne to 1.5 per cent, Brisbane to 1.1 per cent, and Perth to 0.8 per cent.

Although still a landlord’s market, SQM Research managing director Louis Christopher noted a shift. Historically, rental vacancies increase in June due to a winter lull, but this seasonal effect disappeared in 2021 and 2022. “The fact that this year we’ve recorded a seasonal increase suggests the rental market is starting to return to more normal activity levels,” he said. Christopher is confident that the era of 10 to 20 per cent annual rental increases is ending.

Tenants have responded to soaring rents by sharing housing, relocating to regional areas, or buying their first homes. This has been factored into current rents, leading Christopher to predict that future rent increases will align more closely with inflation trends.

Despite this, the rental market remains in severe shortage and is unlikely to materially soften for several years. A slight increase in vacancy rates in Sydney, Melbourne, Canberra, and Brisbane’s CBDs indicates that student demand for rental accommodation may have peaked, with migration rates expected to slow.

Dr. Peter Tulip, chief economist at the Centre for Independent Studies, agrees that the rent boom is tapering off but emphasises that the crisis continues. “Vacancies are unusually low, and the rental market remains extremely tight,” he said. He expects rents to continue rising faster than other prices and incomes, presenting a grim outlook for renters. “We have a housing policy disaster in this country, and it’s going to get worse,” he warned.

Tulip supports the NSW government’s push for more housing, especially around train lines, and calls for other governments to adopt similar measures. Despite a slight improvement, he insists that shortages remain significant.

Dr. Nicola Powell, Domain’s chief of research and economics, noted that the rental market began to turn a corner several months ago but will take longer to fully rebalance. “The vacancy rate has been nudging higher, and the pace of rental growth has slowed,” she said. Powell believes the 20 per cent annual rent increases are over.

In the June quarter, Sydney’s house rents held steady for the first time in 18 months, while Melbourne’s house rent growth was the lowest since March 2023. Powell points out that net overseas migration remains high but is decreasing, investors are returning, and households are adjusting by moving into shared housing or back with parents. “It is technically still a landlord’s market across Australia, but rental price growth has stabilised over the quarter,” she said. “The affordability ceiling hasn’t been reached; it’s been smashed.”

 

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