Connect with us
Byron Bay News and Weather copy
Mt Warning News and Weather copy
Kyogle News
Grafton News and Events copy
Byron Bay News and Weather copy
Mt Warning News and Weather copy
Kyogle News
Grafton News and Events copy
previous arrow
next arrow

National News Australia

Updated rate hike forecasts and the outlook for housing values

Published

on

NSW-Northern-Rivers-Breaking-News
Advertisements
NOTICE OF MEMBERS EXTRAORINDARY LAND DEALING MEETING

Updated rate hike forecasts and the outlook for housing values

Cash rate forecast updates from ANZ Bank has reverberated through the economics, banking and finance and property industries this week. The Reserve Bank has also publicly stated the official interest rate is still probably well below where it needs to be.

More will be known following the June quarter inflation figures, to be released next week, followed closely by the RBA’s regular monthly meeting on the first Tuesday in August.

Despite the RBA’s view that Australian households are well-placed to manage further rate hikes, what would the ramifications be if the upwards revision to ANZ’s cash rate forecast proves correct? Long story short, it would spell more bad news for the trajectory of housing values. Since the first rate hike in May, the downwards trend in value growth has steepened, with the rate of decline accelerating across Sydney and Melbourne.

Interestingly Brisbane, which was previously enjoying a run of high quarterly growth in housing values, has abruptly joined the decline trend with the rolling four-week change in dwelling values turning negative through the first week of July, according to CoreLogic’s daily hedonic home value index. Since peaking, Sydney housing values are down -4.4%, with most of the decline (-3.8%) occurring since the May 5 rate hike. Similarly, in Melbourne, housing values are down -2.6% since then, comprising the bulk of a peak to current decline of -2.8%.

Growth in housing values is broadly slowing around the country, and it is likely more regions will succumb to negative movements over the coming months.

Our latest Mapping the Market data released this week showed of the 3,085 house and unit markets analysed in the June quarter, 41.9% had declined in value. It’s double the proportion that recorded negative rates of growth in Q1. To put the figure in perspective, at the height of the 2017-2019 downturn, almost 81% of house and unit markets were recording a quarterly decline in values. In the early phase of COVID, housing markets went through a broad-based but short-lived decline when 67% of markets were in decline, while during the peak of the pandemic growth cycle in early to mid-2021, only 3.2% of markets were recording a decline in value.

With household debt at record highs, and most of that debt held in housing assets, the household sector is highly sensitive to the rising cost of debt.  Add to this the extremely high prices for non-discretionary goods such as food and fuel, and it’s clear that household balance sheets are likely to be more challenged as mortgage rates increase.

While labour market conditions remain tight, there isn’t a great deal of concern that households will fall behind on their debt repayment schedules, however it is likely that households will be pulling back in other areas of their expenditure to ensure they can fund essential purchases as well keep up to date on their debt servicing obligations.  Sizeable repayment buffers, which the RBA recently estimated to be around 21 months for variable mortgage rate borrowers, should also help to cushion distress across the mortgage sector.

Consumer sentiment continued to trend sharply lower in June, with the monthly Westpac-Melbourne Institute index falling another -3%. The sentiment index is down nearly -20% since December and has fallen every month through 2022.  Westpac notes the pace of decline is comparable to previous shocks historically.  With an index value of 83.8 (noting anything below 100 indicates pessimists outweigh optimists), the sentiment reading has only been this low historically through periods of major disruption (pandemic, GFC, 90’s recession and 80’s recession).  The decline is mostly being driven by concerns around inflation, and to a lesser extent higher interest rates, but readings of housing sentiment have also declined, especially in NSW and Victoria.  Clearly consumers are very sensitive to cost pressures, implying a fragile household sector and likely points towards a broader pull back in consumption and housing market activity until sentiment starts to improve.

Overseas arrivals and departures data for June shows an ongoing ‘normalisation’ in international movements for both arrivals and departures.  Both measures are now tracking at around half of their pre-pandemic levels, but trending higher.  The return of migration back to Australia is likely to flow into additional rental demand – boosting demand in what is already an extremely tight rental market.  We should also see a gradual boost to tourism sectors as overseas visitors pick up, although there may be some downside impact as Australians embark on overseas holidays rather than the domestic oriented travel we have seen through the second half of the pandemic.

 

Advertisements
Tenterfield-The Bowlo
Continue Reading

Local News

Fit for the Long Haul: NHVR Urges Truck Drivers to Prioritise Well-Being This Men’s Health Week

Published

on

By

NHVR CEO Sal Petroccitto OAM - Truck Drivers Men’s Health Week
Advertisements
NOTICE OF MEMBERS EXTRAORINDARY LAND DEALING MEETING

Fit for the Long Haul: NHVR Urges Truck Drivers to Prioritise Well-Being This Men’s Health Week

 

The National Heavy Vehicle Regulator (NHVR) is urging truck drivers to prioritise their mental and physical health during Men’s Health Week.

NHVR CEO Sal Petroccitto OAM highlighted the unique challenges truck drivers face, such as long hours on the road and extended periods away from family and friends. “Men’s Health Week is a crucial time for truck drivers to reflect on their well-being and make it a top priority,” Mr. Petroccitto said.

Truck drivers are vital to Australia’s logistics network, but the demands of the industry can take a toll on their health. Long periods of sitting and the isolating nature of the job contribute to higher rates of mental and physical health issues among heavy vehicle drivers.

“It’s imperative for all truck drivers to remember that their mental and physical health comes first,” Mr. Petroccitto emphasised. He advised drivers to manage their health by exercising, eating healthy foods, and getting enough rest and sleep.

The NHVR is calling on industry partners to support a culture that values the mental health of truck drivers and reduces the stigma associated with seeking help. Through the Heavy Vehicle Safety Initiative program, the NHVR is enhancing mental health resources for truck drivers, including funding projects like OzHelp Foundation’s Health in Gear program.

OzHelp CEO Caroline Walsh noted the high risk of suicide among truck drivers, the second-highest industry group at risk in Australia. The Health in Gear program offers on-road presence, online support, information, and counselling services for transport and logistics workers.

“Truck drivers need to know that while the road may be long, they are never alone,” Ms. Walsh said. OzHelp provides free counselling and 24/7 phone support for transport and logistics workers and their families at 1800 464 327.

For more information on the NHVR’s initiatives and resources available for truck drivers, visit the NHVR website.

 

For more New South Whales news, click here.

Advertisements
Tenterfield-The Bowlo
Continue Reading

Local News

KEEP UP THE MOMENTUM FOR ACTION ON DOMESTIC VIOLENCE

Published

on

By

Janelle Saffin on ACTION ON DOMESTIC VIOLENCE
Advertisements
NOTICE OF MEMBERS EXTRAORINDARY LAND DEALING MEETING

KEEP UP THE MOMENTUM FOR ACTION ON DOMESTIC VIOLENCE

 

By Janelle Saffin MP, Member for Lismore

I have fought for action on domestic violence for more than 40 years.

Recent horrific cases of domestic violence murders have led to a public outcry and media campaigns for action. I welcome the Minns Government announcement of a $230 million emergency package for DV prevention and support.

BUT we must keep up this momentum and not go quiet on this issue.  I want to share with you this excerpt of what I said in the last session of Parliament. (Edited for length)

DOMESTIC AND FAMILY VIOLENCE

Ms JANELLE SAFFIN (Lismore) (20:16): Domestic violence must stop. We all know it. We all say it. Molly should not have died, and her death cannot be in vain. There is a willingness and mobilisation on behalf of the whole community that I have not seen in the more than 40 years I have been involved in advocacy around domestic violence. I thought when I came back to this place that I could do some other things—but I cannot. I absolutely have to re-engage with everyone on trying to stop domestic violence.

Domestic violence is more than the physical act of violence; it is a spectrum of behaviour. In sociological terms, the spectrum extends from circumlocution—the derogatory comments, the bad words, the put‑downs—to extermination, which is murder. Women experience domestic violence right across that whole spectrum. It is not just being a little bit scared; it is living with terror. That absolute terror dominates those women’s lives at the hands of someone who is supposed to be a loving partner—someone they love. It is “What do I wear? What do I think? What do I do? Who do I talk to? Who do I text, because my phone will be monitored?”. Family and friends are moved away, but the perpetrator makes it look like the woman is doing that. Every act is under subjugation.

For women in that situation, it is like living with a sometimes benevolent dictator. Everything they do is circumscribed. It is hard to imagine raising children in that environment. These things have happened for a long time. I set up the Far North Coast Domestic Violence Liaison Committee. I worked in a refuge for years. Earlier, I have been at the forefront of changes, including changes to the laws. There was a Crimes Act, but women were not seen as worthy of protection under that law.

I was looking at the headlines and I thought, I hope they do not disappear quickly like they often do on this issue. I will read some of those headlines: “We’re sick of living in terror”, “This has to stop”, “How many more women have to die?”, “It was murder waiting to happen”, ,,”Time to tackle this crisis in our community”, “‘You get ostracised in a small town if you speak out'”—if you are the domestic violence victim. We know that it can happen anywhere, but it happens to a greater degree in some of those smaller country towns. “Why country women are sitting ducks”, “Misogyny driving violence” “It’s time for men to get uncomfortable”, and “Bush in plea for more DV support”.

The headlines go on and on. (..) I note that in the package the Government has introduced we are looking at perpetrator behaviour. We have to do that. I wish I had 50 minutes, not 5 minutes, to talk about this.

Dr Hugh McDermott: Five hours.

Ms JANELLE SAFFIN: Yes, five hours. We need to open up. On International Women’s Day I said, “We’re so sedate. It’s so polite. We’re having these wonderful lunches. Aren’t we lovely?” I said, “We need to be on the street screaming.” That is what I am doing here.

Link to full speech here.

 

For more National Australia News, visit here.

Advertisements
Tenterfield-The Bowlo
Continue Reading

Business News

US giant Hard Rock flatly denies a takeover for The Star

Published

on

By

NSW-Northern-Rivers-Breaking-News
Advertisements
NOTICE OF MEMBERS EXTRAORINDARY LAND DEALING MEETING

US giant Hard Rock flatly denies a takeover for The Star

 

Hard Rock International has unequivocally denied any involvement in a takeover bid for The Star Entertainment Group (ASX: SGR). The US-based casino and hospitality giant released an official statement overnight refuting claims that it is part of a consortium aiming to acquire the Australian casino operator.

The denial came in response to a statement from The Star, which suggested that Hard Rock was part of a group exploring a “potential transaction” with the company.
“Hard Rock International wants to clarify that it is not engaged in, nor has it authorized, any discussions, activities, or negotiations related to a proposed bid for The Star,” the company stated. “Furthermore, Hard Rock International has not permitted the use of its brand in any proposed bid for The Star by any third party.”

This rebuttal has created confusion, as The Star’s previous statement identified Hard Rock Hotels & Resorts (Pacific) as part of the consortium, implying a connection to Hard Rock.

The US company strongly disputed this claim, even suggesting potential misuse of its brand. “Our brand is built on a legacy of integrity, excellence, and a commitment to our guests, partners, and team members worldwide,” Hard Rock stated. “Any unauthorized use of the Hard Rock name in business dealings is taken very seriously. We are currently investigating this matter and will take all necessary legal actions to protect our brand and reputation.”

Hard Rock urged stakeholders and the public to rely solely on official communications from Hard Rock International for accurate information regarding its business activities and partnerships.

The Star responded briefly to Hard Rock’s statement but did not provide further clarification. The company reiterated that it had not received any proposal directly from Hard Rock International.

“The Star confirms that it has not engaged in substantive discussions with the consortium regarding its proposal,” The Star stated. The company acknowledged Hard Rock International’s statement, which clarified its non-involvement in any discussions or negotiations related to a proposal for The Star.

The Star’s initial statement followed media speculation about a potential takeover or recapitalisation plan amid a second Bell inquiry into the company’s suitability to hold a casino license in NSW. The news of a possible transaction led to a 20% increase in The Star’s share price, closing at 54 cents.

 

For more business news, click here.

Advertisements
Tenterfield-The Bowlo
Continue Reading

NRTimes Online

Advertisement

National News Australia

Latest News

Verified by MonsterInsights