Ian Rogers
Farmers across the Northern Rivers are keeping a close watch on weather patterns as ABARES reports variable rainfall and shifting soil moisture levels across south-eastern Australia, with implications for crop and pasture conditions in our region.
Rainfall and local conditions
The past week saw limited rainfall across southern NSW, with totals of 5–25 millimetres recorded further south in Victoria and South Australia. While some central cropping regions in Queensland picked up 5–15 millimetres, Northern Rivers producers have largely relied on patchy showers to maintain soil moisture.
With winter temperatures on the rise, ABARES warns that soil moisture in southern NSW is declining, potentially affecting crop growth rates and yield potential. This trend could also influence planting conditions and pasture growth in parts of northern NSW if dry conditions persist.
Forecast to 11 September
Looking ahead, forecasts show moderate rainfall totals for most cropping regions, including northern NSW. Falls of 10–50 millimetres are possible across parts of New South Wales, which may provide a much-needed boost for winter crops and pastures. However, Queensland’s northern and inland regions are expected to remain relatively dry.
Crop and pasture impacts
Low rainfall through August has already slowed the development of winter crops and pastures in southern NSW, and similar risks apply to our region if September rains fail to deliver. Farmers in the Northern Rivers will need timely falls this month to sustain growth, especially after a cooler, mixed winter.
While ABARES reports that pasture growth rates improved in some southern regions compared with July, there are still widespread areas of below-average pasture growth across NSW and Queensland. For Northern Rivers graziers, this highlights the importance of managing feed reserves carefully through spring.
Water storage levels
Across the Murray–Darling Basin, storages rose slightly by 278 gigalitres to 15,139 GL (68% capacity). However, levels remain 18% lower than this time last year. While the Northern Rivers is outside the MDB, water availability trends can still affect grain and fodder prices flowing into our region.
Market implications
Water allocation prices in the Victorian Murray below the Barmah Choke rose to $278/ML, a sign of tightening conditions. Restricted trade across key channels means supply pressure could linger, indirectly impacting irrigation-dependent feed production and costs for Northern Rivers livestock producers.
What it means for Northern Rivers
- Patchy rainfall remains a risk: Timely falls are critical for maintaining winter crop yield and supporting pasture into spring.
- Feed planning remains important: Below-average pasture growth in NSW could place pressure on local hay and grain markets.
- Water storage levels are lower: While not directly linked to our rivers, MDB shortages can influence broader market supply and pricing.
Northern Rivers farmers are encouraged to monitor upcoming forecasts closely, with mid-September rainfall likely to be a turning point for winter crop and pasture performance heading into spring.
