Australian Unemployment Rises to 10.1% in January Amid Growing Workforce

By Robert Heyward

In January 2025, Australia’s real unemployment increased by 78,000 people to 1,620,000, reaching 10.1% of the workforce (up 0.4%). The rise in unemployment was driven by more people entering the workforce, with many struggling to secure jobs.

The total Australian workforce reached a record 16,115,000, an increase of 297,000 from December. Both employment and unemployment grew, with employment rising by 219,000 to a new high of 14,495,000, while unemployment also climbed.

Employment Growth Driven by Full-Time Jobs

January saw a surge in full-time employment, which increased by 306,000 to 9,629,000—a new record. In contrast, part-time employment dropped for the second consecutive month, falling by 87,000 to 4,866,000.

Unemployment Rises with Workforce Expansion

• Unemployed Australians: 1,620,000 (10.1% of workforce, up 78,000 from December)
• Looking for part-time work: 837,000 (up 36,000)
• Looking for full-time work: 783,000 (up 42,000)

Unemployment & Underemployment Hit Highest Levels Since 2021

Total unemployment and under-employment rose to 21.4% (up 1.1%), the highest rate since January 2021.

• Under-employed Australians (working part-time but seeking more work): 1.81 million (11.3% of workforce, up 137,000)
• Total Australians unemployed or under-employed: 3.43 million (21.4% of workforce)

Comparison to Two Years Ago

The workforce has grown 1,090,000 since January 2023, with employment rising 1,077,000 in that time. However, the increase in workforce participation is outpacing job availability, driving up unemployment rates.

The January unemployment estimates were obtained from Roy Morgan’s national survey of Australians aged 14+, classifying individuals as unemployed if they are actively looking for work.

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Labor’s National Small Business Strategy Criticised as “All Spin, No Substance”

By Robert Heyward

The Albanese Government’s recently released National Small Business Strategy has drawn sharp criticism, with claims that it offers little in the way of new policies or tangible support for Australia’s struggling small business sector.

Since Labor took office, more than 27,000 businesses have closed, making December 2024 the worst quarter for insolvencies on record, with nearly 4,000 closures. Critics argue the strategy does nothing to address these challenges.

Federal Member for Page Kevin Hogan described the strategy as a glossy PR exercise, filled with stock images and vague promises rather than practical solutions.

“A third of the document is taken up by cover pages, artwork, and photos—many of which aren’t even Australian businesses,” Mr. Hogan said. “We’ve got images of a New Jersey bakery and two American carpenters from a Bank of America campaign.”

Mr. Hogan has called on Labor to disclose how much taxpayer money was spent on the report, suggesting it offers no meaningful assistance to the small business community.

“My advice to small businesses is don’t bother printing it—it’s not worth the paper it’s printed on,” he said.

No New Policies or Relief

Critics argue that instead of introducing fresh initiatives, the strategy merely repackages existing policies and provides vague commitments to “continuing meetings” and “working together.” Meanwhile, small businesses continue to grapple with rising costs, increased insolvencies, and the broader economic pressures of Labor’s industrial relations reforms.

“Small businesses deserve better than Labor’s empty gestures and foreign stock photos,” Mr. Hogan said. “It’s time for real policies that actually help the people who keep our economy running.”

Coalition Promises Support for Small Business

Mr. Hogan outlined the Coalition’s commitment to small businesses, emphasising a strong pro-business platform that includes:

• Reversing complex industrial relations reforms introduced by Labor
• Cutting red and green tape to reduce regulatory burdens
• Delivering cheaper, cleaner, and consistent energy

“A Coalition Government will back small businesses as the key driver of economic growth and security,” he said. “We will be unashamedly pro-small business and deliver real reforms to help this vital sector get back on track.”

The National Small Business Strategy has sparked broader debate over the government’s approach to supporting the sector, with industry groups and opposition leaders calling for a more comprehensive response to the ongoing pressures on Australia’s 2.4 million small businesses.

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Top Issues Shaping the 2025 Federal Election: Cost of Living and Crime Take Centre Stage

By Robert Heyward – source Roy Morgan

As Australians prepare for the 2025 Federal Election, a dramatic shift in voter priorities has emerged. According to Roy Morgan’s survey of over 14,000 electors, the rising cost of living and concerns over crime have become dominant issues, while climate change and government transparency have significantly declined in importance.

Cost of Living Tops the List

Leading the pack, 57% of voters now cite “keeping day-to-day living costs down” as their top concern, a 7-point increase since the 2022 election. This reflects growing financial pressure on households due to rising inflation, housing affordability, and high interest rates. Additionally, “keeping interest rates down” and “managing immigration and population growth” have also surged as key concerns, up 8 points each to 19% and 14%, respectively.

Crime and Law and Order Surge

Public anxiety about safety has escalated sharply, with “reducing crime and maintaining law and order” rising 10 points to 23%—the largest increase for any issue. This shift is particularly notable in Queensland, where concern about crime has doubled to 32%, and in Victoria, where it has risen 12 points to 26%.

The rising focus on crime has already influenced elections. Queensland’s Liberal-National Party (LNP) capitalised on public concern in October 2024, achieving a 7% swing to secure a decisive victory. Victoria’s upcoming by-election in the Labor-held seat of Werribee, where crime is a major concern, could serve as a litmus test for broader voter sentiment.

Declining Concern Over Climate Change

In stark contrast, climate change has seen a dramatic fall in importance, dropping 9 points to 23%. Similarly, “open and honest government” has declined by 6 points to 19%. Both issues were central to the success of the Teal Independents in 2022 but now appear less critical to voters.

Top Issues Shaping the 2025 Federal Election

Shifts Across Party Lines

The concern about crime spans all political affiliations:

• Among Liberal-National Coalition voters, 32% now list crime as a priority, up 15 points since 2022.
• For Labor supporters, crime concerns have nearly doubled from 11% to 20%.
• Even Greens voters saw a 5-point increase, with 13% now prioritising crime.

Immigration and Housing

The rise in concerns about “managing immigration and population growth” (up 8 points to 14%) is closely tied to housing affordability. While it remains a smaller issue overall, its rapid growth suggests it could be a critical swing factor in a tightly contested election.

Implications for the Election

Michele Levine, CEO of Roy Morgan, highlighted the evolving voter landscape:

“Cost-of-living pressures and public safety are now defining issues for this election. The Albanese government must respond decisively to these concerns or risk losing voter confidence. The Coalition, with its strong emphasis on law and order, could resonate powerfully in key marginal electorates.”

With Queensland, New South Wales, and Victoria showing significant increases in crime-related concerns, the Coalition appears well-positioned to capitalize on this growing voter priority. However, addressing financial pressures and managing immigration will remain pivotal for both major parties as they vie for support.

The clear decline in focus on climate change and transparency underscores a shift in voter sentiment, with the 2025 Federal Election shaping up to be one where immediate economic and safety concerns take precedence over long-term issues.

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Business Community Rejects Government’s Free TAFE Legislation

By Jeff Gibbs

The Australian Government’s Free TAFE Bill 2024 (Cth) has faced widespread criticism from the business community, with peak employer organisations and industry groups voicing concerns over its emphasis on public TAFE funding at the expense of independent Registered Training Organisations (RTOs).

The bill proposes permanent funding for at least 100,000 fee-free TAFE places across Australia, positioning TAFE at the core of the vocational training system. However, the Independent Tertiary Education Council Australia (ITECA) and employer groups argue that the policy undermines the critical role of independent RTOs, which train the majority of the country’s skills workforce.

Independent RTOs Deliver Majority of Skills Training

According to the National Centre for Vocational Education Research (NCVER), around 91% of the 5.1 million students in vocational training are enrolled with independent RTOs, which offer specialised, industry-focused training. Despite their proven success, the Free TAFE Bill 2024 would restrict government funding to public TAFE colleges, limiting student choice and access to training.

ITECA Chief Executive Troy Williams highlighted the imbalance in the proposed policy.

“TAFE plays an important role, but it lacks the broad industry coverage and geographic reach of independent RTOs. Government policy should support the complementarity of these providers rather than prioritising one over the other,” he said.

Business Groups Raise Concerns

In submissions to the Senate inquiry reviewing the bill, business organisations have raised concerns about the potential impacts on skills training and workforce development.

• Business Council of Australia (BCA): “Private RTOs deliver most higher-level and complex qualifications and achieve better completion rates and employment outcomes than TAFE.”
• Australian Chamber of Commerce and Industry (ACCI): “By limiting students to free training through TAFE, the government exacerbates skills shortages, as capacity constraints within TAFE limit the system’s ability to scale training.”
• Council of Small Business Organisations Australia (COSBOA): “The Free TAFE Bill prioritises public TAFE colleges at the expense of independent RTOs, undermining small businesses and limiting the vocational education system’s capacity to meet diverse needs.”

Proven Success of Independent RTOs

Submissions also highlighted the advantages of independent RTOs, including their agility, industry alignment, and superior outcomes.

“Independent RTOs consistently deliver higher student and employer satisfaction, better completion rates, and stronger employment outcomes,” COSBOA stated.

ITECA and business groups argue that funding should focus on students rather than systems, allowing individuals to choose providers that best meet their needs.

Call to Reject the Legislation

ITECA has called on the Senate to reject the Free TAFE Bill 2024 (Cth), arguing that it fails to address the realities of Australia’s skills training system and undermines the proven effectiveness of independent RTOs.

“It’s unfair and inefficient to force students into TAFE when independent RTOs are better equipped to meet their needs,” Mr. Williams said.

The organisation advocates for a policy framework that supports diversity in training providers, ensuring students and employers benefit from high-quality and tailored skills training solutions.

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‘Slow Grind’ Ahead for Australia’s Economy in 2025

By Ian Rogers

Australia’s economy is set for a challenging 2025, as the interplay of high interest rates, inflation, rising unemployment, China’s economic slowdown, and global uncertainty under Donald Trump’s second US presidency shapes a complex year. Leading economists predict a slow recovery, with growth remaining below trend.

Recovery Will Be Gradual

Challenger chief economist Jonathan Kearns forecasts that gross domestic product (GDP) will pick up slowly as inflationary pressures ease, boosting consumer confidence and spending. “GDP growth will slowly improve as inflation dissipates and interest rate cuts take effect,” Kearns said, though he cautioned against expecting a quick turnaround.

Interest Rates to Fall, But Modestly

Economists anticipate the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will begin cutting rates by mid-2025, most likely in May, as inflation moves closer to the RBA’s target range of 2–3% annually. Independent economist Nicki Hutley supports earlier rate cuts to provide relief for stretched borrowers but warns of limited reductions.

“We might see two or three rate cuts, but borrowers shouldn’t expect substantial relief,” Hutley said.

Inflation Easing into Control

Inflation, which has dominated economic discourse, is expected to ease further. The latest data shows annual inflation at 2.8%, its lowest level since mid-2021, but underlying inflation remains higher at 3.5%, above the RBA’s target. UBS chief economist George Tharenou predicts both headline and core inflation will moderate in 2025, supported by government energy subsidies.

Labor Market to Soften

After surprising strength in 2024, unemployment is expected to rise, reaching 4.3%, according to the RBA. Slower economic growth and reduced public sector hiring will likely ease labor market pressures, while wage growth is expected to decline from its peak.

China’s Slump Hits Australia

China’s faltering economy remains a significant risk for Australia, particularly for key exports like iron ore and coal. While AMP’s Diana Mousina expects Chinese stimulus measures to support moderate growth, Hutley is less optimistic, warning of ongoing weakness in demand.

Global Volatility Looms

The return of Donald Trump as US president adds uncertainty, with proposed tariffs on China potentially impacting Australia indirectly. Economists remain cautious but suggest Trump’s focus on market performance could temper his more extreme policies.

A Year of Cautious Optimism

Economists agree 2025 will bring modest improvements, with tax cuts, easing inflation, and real wage growth offering some relief. However, the slow pace of recovery means economic divergence between households is likely to persist.

“2025 won’t be transformative,” Kearns said. “But with inflation easing and rates falling, we’ll see gradual improvement.”

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