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‘Slow Grind’ Ahead for Australia’s Economy in 2025

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‘Slow Grind’ Ahead for Australia’s Economy in 2025

 

By Ian Rogers

Australia’s economy is set for a challenging 2025, as the interplay of high interest rates, inflation, rising unemployment, China’s economic slowdown, and global uncertainty under Donald Trump’s second US presidency shapes a complex year. Leading economists predict a slow recovery, with growth remaining below trend.

Recovery Will Be Gradual

Challenger chief economist Jonathan Kearns forecasts that gross domestic product (GDP) will pick up slowly as inflationary pressures ease, boosting consumer confidence and spending. “GDP growth will slowly improve as inflation dissipates and interest rate cuts take effect,” Kearns said, though he cautioned against expecting a quick turnaround.

Interest Rates to Fall, But Modestly

Economists anticipate the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will begin cutting rates by mid-2025, most likely in May, as inflation moves closer to the RBA’s target range of 2–3% annually. Independent economist Nicki Hutley supports earlier rate cuts to provide relief for stretched borrowers but warns of limited reductions.

“We might see two or three rate cuts, but borrowers shouldn’t expect substantial relief,” Hutley said.

Inflation Easing into Control

Inflation, which has dominated economic discourse, is expected to ease further. The latest data shows annual inflation at 2.8%, its lowest level since mid-2021, but underlying inflation remains higher at 3.5%, above the RBA’s target. UBS chief economist George Tharenou predicts both headline and core inflation will moderate in 2025, supported by government energy subsidies.

Labor Market to Soften

After surprising strength in 2024, unemployment is expected to rise, reaching 4.3%, according to the RBA. Slower economic growth and reduced public sector hiring will likely ease labor market pressures, while wage growth is expected to decline from its peak.

China’s Slump Hits Australia

China’s faltering economy remains a significant risk for Australia, particularly for key exports like iron ore and coal. While AMP’s Diana Mousina expects Chinese stimulus measures to support moderate growth, Hutley is less optimistic, warning of ongoing weakness in demand.

Global Volatility Looms

The return of Donald Trump as US president adds uncertainty, with proposed tariffs on China potentially impacting Australia indirectly. Economists remain cautious but suggest Trump’s focus on market performance could temper his more extreme policies.

A Year of Cautious Optimism

Economists agree 2025 will bring modest improvements, with tax cuts, easing inflation, and real wage growth offering some relief. However, the slow pace of recovery means economic divergence between households is likely to persist.

“2025 won’t be transformative,” Kearns said. “But with inflation easing and rates falling, we’ll see gradual improvement.”

 

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The Long Way Home Writing Competition Launches for 2025

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The Long Way Home Writing Competition Launches for 2025

 

Local writers will be delving for gold this year with the launch of the Clarence Valley’s annual writing competition. The 2025 competition theme, ‘Heart of Gold’, invites writers to interpret it in their own unique ways.

“We’re hoping to get a trove of original stories that explore all the richness in this theme,” said Claire Aman, Director of The Long Way Home. “In these times, we’re all searching for a heart of gold: a shiny nugget freely given, or even a speck of kindness. It’s a potent symbol. We’re very excited to see what writers come up with.”

The competition is open to everyone, from primary and high school students to adults.

“You don’t need any qualifications or experience,” Claire added. “You just need to make up a story with heart. We’re looking for imaginative stories that surprise us, stories that make us curious about what happens next, stories that make us laugh or make us cry.”

As in previous years, the best entries will be published in an anthology titled ‘Stories from the Clarence Valley 2025 — Heart of Gold,’ set for release at the end of the year.

The Long Way Home, a writing collective, has been nurturing voices across Clarence Valley since 2018, publishing seven books featuring 372 stories to date.

“The competition grows more popular each year,” Claire noted. “We discovered some fabulous writing last year, especially from winners Gra Murdoch, Jia Atwal, and Lilly Mulqueen. We’re expecting to find new talent this year as writers unearth the beating, gleaming heart of gold.”

Key Dates and Submission Details:

  • Deadline: 1 June 2025
  • Word Limits: Adults: 2,500 words | High School Students: 500 words | Primary Students: 200 words

For more information and to enter the competition, visit here.

 

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Reminder: Slow Down in School Zones as Term 1 Begins

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Reminder: Slow Down in School Zones as Term 1 Begins

 

By Ian Rogers

School zones will be back in effect across most of NSW from tomorrow (Friday, 31 January) as students return for Term 1 after the summer break.

Transport for NSW Executive Director of Transport Safety, Chadi Chalhoub, reminded motorists to stay alert, as some schools will have School Development Days between Friday, 31 January, and Wednesday, 5 February, while others will have students returning during this period. He emphasised the importance of obeying school zone speed limits to ensure the safety of children.

“After six weeks of school holidays, school zones are back tomorrow to ensure students attending school in those four days are safe and to prepare drivers for when all students are back to school across most of the state on Thursday, 6 February.”

“For students in the Western Division of the state, the school term will start a week later – and school zones will be in place from Friday 7 February.”

“Children are some of our most vulnerable road users and can be unpredictable on the road, so please look out for them when they are crossing, waiting to cross or as they get on or off buses or in and out of vehicles,” Mr Chalhoub said.

Mr Chalhoub said, sadly two school aged pedestrians were seriously injured in an active school zone in the first half of 2024.

“Speeding, even just a couple of kilometres over the limit, could be the difference between being able to stop in time or not at all and in a school zone, this could mean hurting a child.”

“I urge parents, guardians and all drivers to be patient and slow down around schools to ensure children remain safe on their journeys to and from school.”

“The start of the new term is also a good opportunity for parents and guardians to start teaching children early about road safety and remind them to Stop! Look! Listen! Think! every time before they cross the road,” Mr Chalhoub said.

Transport for NSW Executive Director Active Transport, Anna Bradley said:

“Families are also encouraged to walk, ride or scoot to school when possible, as it provides a great opportunity for exercise, quality time, independence and mental health benefits, while reducing traffic congestion during peak periods and improving environmental outcomes.”

“The NSW Government remains committed to making these journeys safer and more accessible across NSW through the Get Kids Active Program,” Ms Bradley said.

School zones are typically in effect from 8:00 to 9:30 AM and 2:30 to 4:00 PM on school days, with motorists facing hefty fines and demerit points for non-compliance. However, some schools in NSW have non-standard school zone times, indicated by red or orange signs displaying the specific operating hours. Drivers are urged to pay close attention to these signs to ensure they are following the correct speed limits.

For more information, visit here.

 

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Recognising Our Local Sporting Champions

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Recognising Our Local Sporting Champions

 

By Jeff Gibbs

Young athletes from across the Northern Rivers have been recognised for their achievements and dedication to sport, with 34 local teenagers receiving the prestigious Local Sporting Champions Award.

At a special event today, Federal Member for Page, Kevin Hogan, presented each recipient with a certificate of achievement and confirmed their grant funding through the Local Sporting Champions program.

Supporting the Next Generation of Sporting Stars

Mr. Hogan highlighted the importance of supporting young athletes as they strive for excellence in their chosen sports:

“Those who received the awards have excelled in representing the Northern Rivers on the national and state stage. The Local Sporting Champions program provides financial assistance to young people aged between 12 and 18 years to compete, coach, or umpire in their chosen sport.”

The Northern Rivers has long been home to some of Australia’s most accomplished athletes, and Mr. Hogan emphasised the need to nurture the next generation:

“The region has produced outstanding sportspeople in the past, and it’s vital that we continue to support our local sporting talent. Unfortunately, succeeding in sport doesn’t just take talent and determination – it often requires significant financial support from families. I am pleased to assist these families with grants that help young athletes reach their full potential.”

The Value of Sport in Young Lives

Beyond competition, sport plays a critical role in shaping young Australians. Mr. Hogan reinforced its broader benefits:

“Sport is crucial in the development of young people, teaching life-long skills like teamwork, discipline, and resilience. It also keeps them fit and healthy while allowing them to excel in something they love and enjoy.”

He also encouraged other young athletes to explore the Local Sporting Champions grant program:

“I encourage any aspiring champions competing at a state, national, or international level to apply for a grant by contacting my office or visiting the website: ausport.gov.au.”

Meet the Northern Rivers Sporting Champions

The latest Local Sporting Champions Award recipients represent a diverse range of sports, from athletics and cricket to netball and water polo.

Athletics:

  • Amber Bryant (Blakebrook)
  • Crystal Gill (Casino)
  • Skye Skillen (Corndale)
  • Xavier Dann (Eltham)
  • Willow Dann (Eltham)
  • Tyler Packham (Goonellabah)
  • Talis Walker (Jiggi)
  • Tennille Owen (Kyogle)
  • Pippa Kennedy (Kyogle)
  • Morgan Selesele (Kyogle)
  • Isabella McPherson (Lismore)
  • Hadley Dowton (McLeans Ridges)
  • Amity Dzendolet (Modanville)
  • Shakyia Gambrill (North Woodburn)

Netball:

  • Allora Gould (Casino)
  • Matilda Austin (Chilcotts Grass)
  • Ella Morgan-Spooner (East Lismore)
  • Sophie Powell (Goonellabah)
  • Maya McNamara (Goonellabah)
  • Matilda Green (Green Pigeon)

Cricket:

  • Lachlan Barnes (Alstonville)
  • Jed Mulcahy (Kyogle)

Touch Football:

  • Bryce Byrne (Casino)
  • Jack Elphick (Goonellabah)
  • Isabelle Slater (Wollongbar)

Cross Country:

  • Padraig Heffernan (Dunoon)

Rugby Union:

  • Macy Field (East Lismore)

Baseball:

  • Connor McCarthy (Caniaba)

Hockey:

  • Max Venables (Goonellabah)
  • Caitlyn Halliday (Goonellabah)

Futsal:

  • Max Alcorn (Goonellabah)

Water Polo:

  • Zoe Silver (Lynwood)

Encouraging Future Sporting Champions

The Local Sporting Champions program, an initiative of the Australian Sports Commission, provides financial support to help young athletes cover costs associated with travel, accommodation, and competition fees at state, national, or international events.

For more information or to apply for a grant, visit ausport.gov.au or contact Kevin Hogan’s office for assistance.

By supporting young athletes, the Northern Rivers community continues to foster talent, sportsmanship, and a bright future for the region’s sporting stars.

 

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Coalition Maintains Narrow Lead Over ALP During Australia Day Long Weekend: L-NP 52% cf. ALP 48%

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Coalition Maintains Narrow Lead Over ALP During Australia Day Long Weekend: L-NP 52% cf. ALP 48%

 

By Jeff Gibbs

The latest Roy Morgan survey, conducted from January 20–26, 2025, indicates that the Coalition Government would retain power with a slim majority if a Federal Election were held today. Despite shifting primary vote patterns, the two-party preferred vote remains unchanged at 52% for the Coalition compared to 48% for the ALP, underlining a consistent but tightly contested political landscape.

Primary Vote Movements and Trends

The survey revealed notable shifts in primary voting intention among major and minor parties over the past week:

  • Coalition (L-NP): Support dropped by 1.5%, down to 40.5%, signalling a slight erosion in its voter base.
  • ALP: Gained 1%, increasing its primary support to 29.5%, reflecting a slight rebound in Labor’s appeal.
  • Greens: Experienced a 1.5% decline, dropping to 11.5%, marking their lowest level of support since late 2023.
  • One Nation: Support rose by 2% to 6%, suggesting growing traction among right-leaning voters dissatisfied with the Coalition.
  • Independents: Support increased slightly, up 0.5% to 9%, reflecting continued appeal among voters seeking alternatives to traditional parties.
  • Other Parties: Dropped by 0.5%, down to 3.5%, showing minimal impact from smaller, less-established groups.

These movements among minor parties effectively balanced each other out, leaving the two-party preferred vote unchanged from the previous week.

Key Influences on Voting Patterns

While the survey found no direct impact on the two-party preferred result, several prominent national and global issues may have influenced voter sentiment in the past week:

  1. Concerns About Rising Antisemitism: Public discussions about an uptick in antisemitism within Australia have drawn attention to how political leaders and parties are addressing social cohesion. Greens Leader Adam Bandt has faced criticism for his perceived silence on the matter.
  2. Ceasefire Between Israel and Hamas: The highly publicised ceasefire brought temporary resolution to ongoing tensions in drew mixed reactions and may have contributed to the Greens’ declining support.
  3. Annual Australia Day Debate: Discussions surrounding the future of Australia Day and debates over its appropriateness remain a polarizing issue. While this has not significantly shifted the two-party preferred vote, it remains a point of contention among voters, particularly within younger and more progressive demographics.

Closer Contest Under 2022 Preference Allocation

When preferences are allocated based on voting patterns from the 2022 Federal Election, the gap between the two major parties narrows further:

  • Coalition: 51% (down 1%)
  • ALP: 49% (up 1%)

This closer result highlights the competitive nature of the political landscape, with the Coalition’s lead remaining vulnerable to small swings in voter sentiment.

Greens Facing Challenges

The Greens’ 1.5% drop to 11.5% is a key finding in this survey, as it marks their lowest level of support in over a year. Political analysts attribute this to:

  • Leadership silence on critical issues such as antisemitism.
  • Divisive comments from Adam Bandt about international conflicts, which may have alienated some of their progressive voter base.
  • A potential shift of environmentally focused voters to Independents or smaller progressive parties.

Rise in Support for One Nation

Support for One Nation rose by 2% to 6%, the party’s strongest performance in recent months. This surge may reflect:

  • Dissatisfaction among conservative voters with the Coalition’s performance, particularly on issues such as economic management and cultural debates.
  • Increased attention to policies championed by One Nation on issues like immigration and national security, which resonate with segments of the right-leaning voter base.

Undecided Voters

The percentage of undecided voters dropped to 6.5% (down 2% from the previous week), reflecting increased certainty among the electorate. These voters could play a decisive role in narrowing or widening the gap between the major parties as the political climate evolves.

Survey Methodology and Sample Details

This Roy Morgan survey interviewed a representative cross-section of 1,567 Australian electors from January 20–26, 2025. Key points about the methodology include:

  • The survey was conducted during a week featuring significant political and social developments.
  • Preferences were allocated based on both 2025 responses and voting patterns from the 2022 Federal Election for comparative insights.
  • The margin of error ensures reliability, but comparisons between surveys must account for the timing of events and broader political contexts.

CEO Commentary

Michele Levine, CEO of Roy Morgan, provided a comprehensive analysis of the survey findings: “Despite the consistent two-party preferred result, primary vote movements indicate shifts among minor parties and voter groups. The Coalition’s slight dip and One Nation’s rise suggest some dissatisfaction among conservative voters. Similarly, the Greens’ drop to their lowest level in over a year reflects challenges in retaining their progressive voter base.”

“Key issues of the week, including rising antisemitism, the Israel-Hamas ceasefire, and debates about Australia Day, did not significantly impact the two-party preferred vote. However, the Greens’ positioning on these topics may have contributed to their declining support.”

Levine concluded: “With the two-party preferred gap narrowing to 51% vs. 49% under 2022 preferences, the Federal Election remains highly competitive. Both major parties must remain vigilant in addressing key voter concerns, particularly as movements among minor parties and Independents continue to shape the political landscape.”

Key Takeaways

The latest Roy Morgan survey underscores the following:

  1. Stable Two-Party Preferred Vote: The Coalition maintains a slim lead, but the race remains competitive.
  2. Movements Among Minor Parties: Shifts in support for the Greens and One Nation highlight changing dynamics within the electorate.
  3. Closer Race Under 2022 Preferences: The narrowing margin to 51% vs. 49% suggests volatility in voter loyalty.
  4. Key Issues: Social and cultural debates continue to influence voter sentiment, even without shifting overall results.

As the political environment evolves, these findings reflect a dynamic electoral landscape heading into the rest of 2025.

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Lismore Student Awarded Prestigious Scholarship to Pursue Academic Dream in Sydney

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Lismore Student Awarded Prestigious Scholarship to Pursue Academic Dream in Sydney

 

By Jeff Gibbs

Riley Gallagher-Long, a resilient and ambitious student from Lismore, has been awarded a prestigious scholarship to live and study at St Andrew’s College, one of Australia’s most esteemed residential colleges, located within the University of Sydney. The scholarship, which is granted to only 40 exceptional students from rural and regional communities across Australia, will provide Riley with vital financial and academic support as he continues to pursue his Bachelor of Commerce at the University of New South Wales (UNSW).

This scholarship will cover key expenses, including accommodation, meals, and academic resources, allowing Riley to focus on his studies while immersing himself in the dynamic community of St Andrew’s College. It also provides access to leadership programs, cultural and artistic activities, and a robust support network that will prepare him for a bright future.

A Life-Changing Opportunity

For Riley, this scholarship represents far more than just financial support—it is a turning point in his academic journey. Reflecting on his recent challenges, Riley shared how the 2022 Lismore floods disrupted every aspect of his life:

“The floods turned my life upside down. I lost my home, school, and job. By the time I finished Year 12, I had little savings, and my family couldn’t support my move to Sydney. College felt completely out of reach, so I ended up in an unstable share house without a lease. It was isolating, and staying in the city to finish my degree seemed almost impossible.”

The scholarship has alleviated these pressures, giving Riley the stability and support he needs to succeed:

“This scholarship provides me with secure, high-quality accommodation and places me in a positive, ambitious community. It’s a relief to know I can focus on my studies without worrying about where I’m going to live. Being surrounded by like-minded, driven people at St Andrew’s College will motivate me to push myself academically and personally.”

Resilience Rooted in Lismore

Growing up in Lismore, Riley developed a deep sense of resilience and determination, traits that have shaped his outlook and drive to succeed.

“The experience of seeing my community rebuild after the floods taught me about perseverance and the importance of community support. My journey to university hasn’t been easy, but it has inspired me to make the most of every opportunity that comes my way,” Riley said.

He also expressed gratitude to the teachers, friends, and mentors in Lismore who supported him throughout his high school years:

“I’m incredibly thankful for the encouragement I received back home, which gave me the confidence to pursue my goals.”

Riley Gallagher-Long

Riley Gallagher-Long

A Vision for the Future

Riley is driven by a strong ambition to excel in the field of high finance and sees the scholarship as a key stepping stone toward achieving his goals:

“The opportunities provided by St Andrew’s College—its academic tutoring, leadership programs, and professional development initiatives—will help me build the skills I need to succeed in the financial sector. I’m particularly interested in supporting disadvantaged students like myself in the future, creating pathways for others to access higher education.”

He is eager to immerse himself in the rich culture and community of St Andrew’s College, which includes sports, arts, leadership initiatives, and student-led clubs. Riley was particularly drawn to the college’s ethos of fostering ambition and making a difference, which he sees as deeply aligned with his own values.

About St Andrew’s College

Founded in 1867, St Andrew’s College is a residential community of more than 380 students, postgraduates, and resident fellows, offering a rich and diverse environment for academic, cultural, and personal growth. The college has earned a reputation as a hub of excellence, supported by one of the most generous scholarship programs in Australia, providing $2.2 million annually to students in need.

The college’s alumni network includes some of Australia’s most accomplished individuals, including:

  • 19 Rhodes Scholars
  • Doc Evatt, former Australian High Court Judge and United Nations President
  • John Bradfield, the designer of the Sydney Harbour Bridge
  • Entrepreneurs Robbie and James Ferguson, founders of tech company Immutable
  • Olympians and sports leaders, including Matilda’s representatives Clare Hunt and Clare Wheeler

Dr. Daniel Tyler, Principal of St Andrew’s College, highlighted the importance of the scholarship program and Riley’s selection:

“St Andrew’s recognises the unique challenges faced by rural and regional students in accessing higher education. These scholarships are strategically designed to ease those challenges and enrich our community with diverse perspectives and talents. Riley Gallagher-Long is a worthy recipient, and we look forward to seeing his contributions to our academic, sporting, artistic, and cultural programs.”

Advice for Rural and Regional Students

Riley offered words of encouragement for other students from rural and regional areas:

“Coming from a town like Lismore, it’s easy to feel like your options are limited, but nothing is out of reach. Dream big, work hard, and don’t be afraid to take risks. Pursuing unique passions beyond school or work can help you stand out as a well-rounded individual.”

A Bright Path Ahead

As Riley embarks on his journey at St Andrew’s College and continues his studies at UNSW, he is committed to making the most of this opportunity and giving back to the community that has supported him. With his resilience, ambition, and gratitude, Riley Gallagher-Long exemplifies the spirit of perseverance and determination, inspiring others to pursue their dreams against all odds.

For more information about St Andrew’s College and its scholarship programs, visit here.

 

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