Predicting Australia’s Exposure to Exotic Pests
By Robert Heyward
Australian researchers are taking a proactive approach to prepare for the biosecurity challenges of tomorrow. The Centre of Excellence for Biosecurity Risk Analysis (CEBRA) has developed advanced forecasting models to predict which exotic pests will pose the greatest threat to Australia in the coming decades, based on changing climate conditions and evolving international trade patterns.
The CEBRA team has analysed border interception data for several high-risk pests, including the brown marmorated stink bug, spongy moth, Asian honeybee, giant African snail, and khapra beetle. Their research estimates the potential contamination of goods consignments by these pests.
The team has also created global interactive maps that project pest exposure over time, factoring in various climate change scenarios and their potential impact on international trade.
Justine Saunders, Deputy Secretary of Biosecurity, Operations and Compliance, hailed the project as a significant advancement in strengthening Australia’s biosecurity system.
“This project is instrumental in guiding our threat prioritization, enhancing border screening processes, and improving post-border surveillance and eradication efforts,” Ms. Saunders stated.
She also highlighted the model’s versatility, noting that it could be expanded to predict risks related to human movement and to assess threats from multiple species simultaneously.
“Global macro trends are increasing the risks posed by pests and diseases,” Ms. Saunders added. “To effectively prepare for these threats, it is crucial to understand the potential impacts and identify which sectors may be most affected by a post-border detection.”
Ms. Saunders emphasized that the project underscores the department’s ongoing commitment to safeguarding Australia’s agriculture, environment, and economy.
For more details on the project’s methodology and findings, you can watch the presentation by Dr. James Camac and Professor Tom Kompas as part of the 2024 CEBRA Webinar Series on the CEBRA YouTube Channel.
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