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Northern Rivers & Rural News

A golden outlook for a golden year’ Australian Winter Crop Forecast

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2021/22 Australian Winter Crop Forecast

‘A golden outlook for a golden year’ – Rabobank 2021/22 Australian Winter Crop Forecast

Australia is set for a second consecutive bumper winter harvest, with total production forecast to come in just five per cent shy of last year’s near-record crop, according to Rabobank.
In its just-released Australian Winter Crop 2021/22 Production, Price and Inputs Forecast, the specialist agribusiness bank estimates the nation will harvest 52.87 million tonnes of winter grains, oilseeds and pulses this season. While down five per cent on last year’s crop, this is still a hefty 25 per cent above the five-year average.
Canola is the stand-out mover, with production estimated to reach a new record of 5.16 million tonnes (up 14 per cent on last year and a stellar 48 per cent above the five-year average), driven by increased planting and favourable growing conditions in many regions.
Australia’s wheat production is expected to come in at 31.9 million tonnes (down four per cent on last year, but still 35 per cent above the five-year average). Barley production is forecast to be down 10 per cent on last year to 11.7 million tonnes, though also still up on the five-year average (by seven per cent).
Report co-author, Rabobank agriculture analyst Dennis Voznesenski said Australia’s second consecutive very large winter crop “comes at an opportune time for local growers, with global shortages and high prices for grains and oilseeds”.
“Short global supplies of grains and oilseeds will continue to support Australian prices over the year ahead,” he said. “And although global prices can be expected to soften as new crops in different regions around the world come into play, the uncertainty that exists around seasonal conditions in grain-growing areas and the process of global grain stocks re-building will keep prices at least above the range of the last six to seven years.”
The report notes favourable growing conditions in Australia have seen expectations of increased amounts of high-protein wheat in Queensland, South Australia, and Western Australia this harvest – “timed perfectly” with a current global shortage of high-protein wheat, due to drought in North America.
Other factors of note for this year’s winter crop include a lower supply of malt-quality barley – due to a reduction in barley planting, and particularly malt varieties – and less grain baled for hay because of export concerns due to a largely-closed Chinese hay market.
“There is also a proportion of last year’s record east coast harvest – 10 to 15 per cent – that remains on farm,” Mr Voznesenski said. “And this will compete with the coming crop for storage space and mean more delivery and price pressure during harvest.”

Exports
Rabobank forecasts Australia’s total grain exports to increase again this year – by five per cent year on year (YOY) and to include 24.5 million tonnes of wheat, 7.8 million tonnes of barley and 4.3 million tonnes of canola.
“A second very large harvest means that Australia’s stocks will now be replenished after the drought so we will be able to lift exports in 2021/22 despite production coming in lower than last year,” Mr Voznesenski said.
“We expect Australia will again be able to deliver a strong export performance into Southeast Asia, with Australian wheat continuing to be the price setter across the region. This is due to lower prices in Australia because of the substantial surplus that will be available, but also favourable freight costs compared with grain from further afield – an advantage that increases in times of high-cost freight like we currently have and expect to continue in 2022.”

States
Rabobank forecasts 2021/22 winter crop production to be up by 18 per cent in both Western Australia and Queensland – off the back of improved rainfall over the growing season in both states.
New South Wales production is expected to be down 14 per cent on last year’s record harvest in the state, but still nearly 70 per cent above the five-year average.
South Australia’s crop is forecast to decline 10 per cent YOY, due to less favourable planting conditions and patchy rainfall, while Victoria is set to record the largest decline in production – down 24 per cent on last year, primarily due to drier conditions in the western part of the state.

Wheat outlook
For wheat, the Rabobank report says, low world stocks will keep global prices at high levels.
Report co-author, Rabobank senior commodities analyst Cheryl Kalisch Gordon says global wheat stocks have fallen, particularly in exporting nations, and are on track to decline materially over the next nine months, exerting upward pressure on Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) wheat prices in the year ahead.
“This has been driven by high usage of wheat in animal feed, substituting for corn, which is in low supply, and due to downgraded wheat quality in the EU relegating it stock feed use,” she said, “while there has also been steady growth in food consumption.”
The bank expects CBOT wheat to trade in the USc725-740/bu range until the second quarter of 2022, when it is forecast to decline as northern hemisphere new crop supply becomes available, but continuing above USc700/bu for the balance of 2022, given the stock rebuilding that will be required.
For local wheat prices, the bank expects to see “price resilience” during the remaining months of 2021, despite “harvest pressure and the favourable harvest volume”, Dr Kalisch Gordon said.
“This is due to the strong demand we expect as the world searches for wheat after the northern hemisphere harvest finishes and with some assistance of further softening of the Australian dollar,” she said. This should especially be the case for higher-protein wheat.
The bank expects the Australian dollar will remain in the low USc70 range, supporting Australian wheat values over the year ahead.

Barley

For Australian barley, while Rabobank does not expect China to return as a market “to a material degree even in the midterm”, the tight global corn market is set to support barley demand over the coming year.
“Prices will be supported as buyers, especially in Southeast Asia and the Middle East, continue to find good value in barley as a substitute for corn in livestock feeding,” Dr Kalisch Gordon said.
Local demand for feed barley is also expected to remain steady, with the number of cattle on feed in Australia remaining above one million head and demand for export beef staying buoyant, along with steadily growing demand from the poultry sector.
“Malt barley demand is also improving, with recovering beer demand globally as the world opens after COVID-19,” she said.
Local barley prices are forecast to appreciate marginally after harvest and in the first half of 2022, before softening at the back end of 2022, however remaining at above average.

Canola
For canola, the report says, record high prices off the back of low global stock levels – due to poor seasons in Canada and the EU – should see expanded production in the northern hemisphere next season.
This will lead to a substantial re-supply in global canola stocks in 2022, however the impacts of the current low global stock situation will be felt over the coming year.
“With the deep hole in global canola stocks and still some re-supply uncertainty, global prices are expected to remain elevated into the second quarter of 2022, before softening, but remaining materially above five-year averages for the balance of next year,” Dr Kalisch Gordon said.
“Locally, we expect the same pattern with Australian canola prices, though with some harvest pressure in quarter four this year, with the forecast record canola harvest that is expected.”

Northern Rivers & Rural News

Trailblazing women join together to discuss breaking bias on International Women’s Day 2022

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Trailblazing women join together to discuss breaking bias on International Women’s Day 2022

Trailblazing women join together to discuss breaking bias on International Women’s Day 2022

Landcare Australia and the Australian Government Department of Agriculture, Water and the Environment are bringing together a formidable group of women for a conversation about their challenges and triumphs.

In an online panel event on International Women’s Day, Tuesday 8 March, Regional Agriculture Landcare Facilitator Kerstie Lee will lead the discussion, focussing on this year’s theme – #BreakTheBias.

The panel includes Natalie Sommerville, a farmer, grazier and proud Torres Strait Islander woman from the clan Wagadagam of the Goemulgal people of Mabuyag Island. Currently living and working on Ngadjuri Country in South Australia’s Mid North, when Nat is not farming she is mentoring Aboriginal students.

Joining her is Sally Downie, who was selected as an ABC Heywire Trailblazer in 2019 for her work advocating for improved mental health services and support in drought-affected communities in Central West NSW. She is also a farmer, student and part-time drought policy officer.

Fiona Hill-Stein will add insights from her career advising on agricultural policy, drought and rural assistance, and natural resource management at the Australian Government Department of Agriculture, Water and the Environment.

Rounding out the panel is Tess Grieves, Regional Landcare Coordinator at North Central Catchment Management Authority in Victoria. A driven environmental achiever in her community, she is nominated for the Steadfast Young Landcare Leadership Award at the 2022 National Landcare Awards.

“We are thrilled to present an engaging, thought-provoking discussion with Kerstie, Natalie, Sally, Fiona and Tess about their experiences and accomplishments in landcare,” said Dr Shane Norrish, CEO Landcare Australia.

“Launched over 35 years ago by two women – Joan Kirner and Heather Mitchell – landcare has led the way with women in leadership roles across Australia. This event celebrates the thousands of women in landcare and their contribution to local communities and natural resource management,” said Dr Norrish.

International Women’s Day 2022 aims to inspire everyone to celebrate women’s achievement, raise awareness against bias, and take action for equality.

Don’t miss Landcare Women Break the Bias, Tuesday 8 March, 2pm – 3.30pm AEDT.

Register to attend at landcareaustralia.org.au/webinars/iwd2022.

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Northern Rivers & Rural News

Farmers get their say on land use

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NSW Northern Rivers Breaking News

Farmers get their say on land use

The fight between farmers and developers could be a thing of the past thanks to a new mapping project that will shape future regional planning decisions.

With agriculture, urban development, renewable energy infrastructure and other land use interests competing for space in our increasingly busy regional areas, NSW Farmers is urging landholders to have their say on State Significant Agricultural Land mapping.

NSW Farmers Vice President Xavier Martin said it was an important process that would help protect farmers from conflicting land uses into the future.

“Farmers are being given a direct opportunity to have their say on the important issue of land use planning, and this could set the course for years to come as land use interests in regional areas grow,” Mr Martin said.

“Unfortunately, agricultural land can be viewed as a default zone when it comes to matters such as urban expansion, energy infrastructure and mining.

“There’s a finite amount of land suitable for agriculture and at the moment, we are losing it in a very fragmented way, but the state government’s mapping exercise is an opportunity to resolve that poor outcome.”

Mr Martin said the NSW Government’s understanding of the regional and state significance of agricultural areas would go a long way to minimising future conflict.

“The understanding of high value agricultural land must be multi-faceted, taking into consideration soil quality, yield, adaptability, proximity to export hubs and regional importance,” Mr Martin said.

“If the government is to identify and protect agricultural land on a tiered basis, then they need to understand what makes land strategically important – and farmers will be the repository of that knowledge.

“The goal of NSW Farmers advocacy in the land use space is to ensure agriculture is being considered in land use decisions. We need to start somewhere, and this mapping is the starting point.”

While the first iteration of the government’s mapping is not perfect, Mr Martin said consultation and refinement would help produce a planning tool that benefits landholders.

Consultation on the first State Significant Agricultural Land mapping is open until late January 2022 and the NSW Department of Primary Industries is welcoming input from farmers.

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Northern Rivers & Rural News

Northern NSW farmers to have their say on climate, regional opportunities

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Northern NSW farmers to have their say on climate, regional opportunities

Friday, 10 December 2021. From Taree to Lismore, Northern NSW farmers can have their say on what Australia’s climate policy should look like at one of Farmers for Climate Action’s end-of-year catch-ups next week.

The seven networking events, created by farmers for farmers passionate about a better climate future, are an opportunity to be updated on Australia’s climate policy, share local insights and learnings from the year, and ensure we’re feeding the right climate solutions back to industry and decision-makers.

The 1.5-hour sessions will run from Monday 13 December to Wednesday 15 December in the following locations:

Taree: Monday 13 December from 6.30pm at the Caravilla Motor Inn Bistro
Port Macquarie: Tuesday 14 December from 9am at Hibbard Sports Club
Dorrigo: Tuesday 14 December from 1.30pm at the Food Angel Cafe
Bellingen: Tuesday 14 December from 630pm at Bellingen Riverside Cottages
Grafton: Wednesday 15 Dec from 9.30am at Vines at 139
Kyogle: Wednesday 15 December from 2pm at Sugarbowl Cafe
Lismore: Wednesday 15 December from 6.30pm at the Lismore Workers Club mezzanine

Peter Holding, third-generation Harden farmer and FCA community outreach officer said:

“Here’s your opportunity to meet like-minded farmers and compare notes on the year we’ve had. We can have a frank discussion about where Australia’s climate policy is at and, more importantly, what this means for our region and livelihoods.

“Farmers are on the front lines of climate change, with many of us in this region living through droughts, floods, bushfires and more.

“Strong climate policy creates a raft of opportunities for regional Australia and we want Northern NSW farmers to be central to the conversation to ensure we get the best opportunities for the region.”

The events will be free of charge. RSVPs are essential and refreshments will be provided. To register visit www.farmersforclimateaction.org.au/events.

Farmers for Climate Action is a movement of almost 7000 farmers and agricultural leaders working to ensure that farmers, who are on the frontlines of climate change, are part of its solution.

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