National News Australia

Updated rate hike forecasts and the outlook for housing values

Published

2 years ago

1 August 2022

JeffG

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Updated rate hike forecasts and the outlook for housing values

Cash rate forecast updates from ANZ Bank has reverberated through the economics, banking and finance and property industries this week. The Reserve Bank has also publicly stated the official interest rate is still probably well below where it needs to be.

More will be known following the June quarter inflation figures, to be released next week, followed closely by the RBA’s regular monthly meeting on the first Tuesday in August.

Despite the RBA’s view that Australian households are well-placed to manage further rate hikes, what would the ramifications be if the upwards revision to ANZ’s cash rate forecast proves correct? Long story short, it would spell more bad news for the trajectory of housing values. Since the first rate hike in May, the downwards trend in value growth has steepened, with the rate of decline accelerating across Sydney and Melbourne.

Interestingly Brisbane, which was previously enjoying a run of high quarterly growth in housing values, has abruptly joined the decline trend with the rolling four-week change in dwelling values turning negative through the first week of July, according to CoreLogic’s daily hedonic home value index. Since peaking, Sydney housing values are down -4.4%, with most of the decline (-3.8%) occurring since the May 5 rate hike. Similarly, in Melbourne, housing values are down -2.6% since then, comprising the bulk of a peak to current decline of -2.8%.

Growth in housing values is broadly slowing around the country, and it is likely more regions will succumb to negative movements over the coming months.

Our latest Mapping the Market data released this week showed of the 3,085 house and unit markets analysed in the June quarter, 41.9% had declined in value. It’s double the proportion that recorded negative rates of growth in Q1. To put the figure in perspective, at the height of the 2017-2019 downturn, almost 81% of house and unit markets were recording a quarterly decline in values. In the early phase of COVID, housing markets went through a broad-based but short-lived decline when 67% of markets were in decline, while during the peak of the pandemic growth cycle in early to mid-2021, only 3.2% of markets were recording a decline in value.

With household debt at record highs, and most of that debt held in housing assets, the household sector is highly sensitive to the rising cost of debt. Add to this the extremely high prices for non-discretionary goods such as food and fuel, and it’s clear that household balance sheets are likely to be more challenged as mortgage rates increase.

While labour market conditions remain tight, there isn’t a great deal of concern that households will fall behind on their debt repayment schedules, however it is likely that households will be pulling back in other areas of their expenditure to ensure they can fund essential purchases as well keep up to date on their debt servicing obligations. Sizeable repayment buffers, which the RBA recently estimated to be around 21 months for variable mortgage rate borrowers, should also help to cushion distress across the mortgage sector.

Consumer sentiment continued to trend sharply lower in June, with the monthly Westpac-Melbourne Institute index falling another -3%. The sentiment index is down nearly -20% since December and has fallen every month through 2022. Westpac notes the pace of decline is comparable to previous shocks historically. With an index value of 83.8 (noting anything below 100 indicates pessimists outweigh optimists), the sentiment reading has only been this low historically through periods of major disruption (pandemic, GFC, 90’s recession and 80’s recession). The decline is mostly being driven by concerns around inflation, and to a lesser extent higher interest rates, but readings of housing sentiment have also declined, especially in NSW and Victoria. Clearly consumers are very sensitive to cost pressures, implying a fragile household sector and likely points towards a broader pull back in consumption and housing market activity until sentiment starts to improve.

Overseas arrivals and departures data for June shows an ongoing ‘normalisation’ in international movements for both arrivals and departures. Both measures are now tracking at around half of their pre-pandemic levels, but trending higher. The return of migration back to Australia is likely to flow into additional rental demand – boosting demand in what is already an extremely tight rental market. We should also see a gradual boost to tourism sectors as overseas visitors pick up, although there may be some downside impact as Australians embark on overseas holidays rather than the domestic oriented travel we have seen through the second half of the pandemic.

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What does the latest RBA cash rate rise means for property prices, inflation and the risk of tipping into a recession? RMIT expert available for comment. – RMIT

Port Macquarie

Call for more mates to support Port Macquarie’s Sailability

Published

2 weeks ago

27 September 2024

JeffG

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Call for more mates to support Port Macquarie’s Sailability

Vision available: https://tinyurl.com/mrz9nhz7

The Port Macquarie community group, Sailability, is calling for volunteers ahead of this year’s sailing season, as the club prepares to take to the Hastings River again on Wednesday 25 September.
Sailability is a volunteer organisation whose mission is to offer people with varying abilities freedom on the water.
The club uses a fleet of specially designed sailing dinghies with simplified controls and enhanced stability to hold weekly sailing days for people living with physical and mental disability.
The club received $55,920 from the NSW Government to extend its carpark and complete landscaping around its new boat shed and accessible amenities block, as well as to install six accessible picnic tables in McInherney Park.
The not-for-profit club is the only organisation of its kind in the area and its 80 volunteers cater to approximately 60 sailors each week.
The group provides its services at no charge, with sailors coming from disability support units at local schools in Port Macquarie, Wauchope, Laurieton and Kempsey, as well as disability service providers, aged care facilities and private enquiries.
Census statistics for show there are approximately 6,000 people with serious or profound disability in the Port Macquarie area, and the club struggles to meet the demand for its services.
People keen to get involved in volunteering with the club can attend McInherney Park on Wednesdays between September and May to learn more, or go to www.sailabilitypm.com.au and click the Contact Us tab.
Minister for Agriculture and Regional NSW, Tara Moriarty said:
“This fantastic community group is really making waves in terms of improving quality of life for people in the Port Macquarie area with disability.
“It’s wonderful to see people experience a sense of achievement and improved self-confidence and self-esteem through their participation in Sailability’s program.”
Parliamentary Secretary for Disability Inclusion, Liesl Tesch* said:
“Sailability is a beacon of hope and inclusion in Port Macquarie. By fostering a sense of belonging on the water, they’re not only enhancing the lives of people with disability but also enriching the entire community.”
“The amazing volunteers at Sailability do such important work helping build confidence and resilience for so many people in the region each week.”
*Liesl Tesch is a seven-time Paralympian including winning two gold medals in sailing
Sailability Port Macquarie volunteer Rick Eller said:
“The club has come a long way from humble beginnings when it launched in December 2012, we were using two borrowed boats at the time, we had a handful of volunteers, and we were borrowing life jackets from the SES or emergency services here in Port Macquarie.
“The best part about working for Sailability is the expressions and the smiles when the people who’ve been sailing come back to the pontoon, that’s what makes it all worthwhile.”
Sailability Port Macquarie Vice President Julie Constable said:
“It’s extremely important that people are aware that people with a disability are very able and keen to get out into society so something like this is off great benefit to the community.”

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Cowra

Teen charged with multiple property offences in Cowra – Operation Regional Mongoose

Published

2 weeks ago

26 September 2024

JeffG

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Teen charged with multiple property offences in Cowra – Operation Regional Mongoose

Tuesday, 24 September 2024 02:01:49 PM
A teen will face court charged following investigations into multiple property-related offences in the state’s central west.

Operation Regional Mongoose is a high-visibility police operation to tackle serious property-related crime, committed predominately by young offenders.

About 4.30am yesterday (Monday 23 September 2024), emergency services were call to the low level bridge adjacent to Grenfell Road, Cowra, following reports a Subaru sedan was well alight.

Officers attached to Chifley Police District attended and commenced an investigation into the circumstances surrounding the fire.

Checks revealed the car was allegedly stolen from a home on Liverpool Street, Cowra, between 7.30pm on Sunday (22 September 2024), and 4.30am yesterday (Monday 23 September 2024.

Following inquiries, about 2am today (Tuesday 24 September 2024), police were patrolling Young Street, Cowra, when they stopped and spoke to a 17-year-old boy sitting in a park.

The boy was subjected to a search, and police located gloves, a box cutter and keys to a Subaru.

He was taken to Cowra Police Station and charged with;

Steal motor vehicle
Aggravated break and enter dwelling in company steal
Take and drive conveyance without consent of owner
Custody of knife in public place
Possess housebreaking implements
Never licensed person drive vehicle on road
Goods in personal custody suspected being stolen, and
Commit S154C offence and disseminate.
The teen was refused bail to appear at a Children’s court today (Tuesday 24 September 2024).

Inquiries under Operation Regional Mongoose continue.

Anyone with information about Operation Regional Mongoose is urged to contact Crime Stoppers: 1800 333 000 or https://nsw.crimestoppers.com.au. Information is treated in strict confidence. The public is reminded not to report information via NSW Police social media pages.

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Bathurst

Man charged after allegedly threatening police – Bathurst

Published

2 weeks ago

26 September 2024

JeffG

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Man charged after allegedly threatening police – Bathurst

Tuesday, 24 September 2024 12:58:23 PM

A man is due to face court over alleged death threats made towards police officers in the Central West region.

About 10pm on Saturday 21 September 2024, a man allegedly called Triple 0 and threatened to kill a police officer and a judicial officer.

Officers attached to Chifley Police District were alerted and commenced an investigation into the incident.

Following extensive inquiries, police arrested a 37-year-old man at a home on Seymour Street, Bathurst, about 12.15pm yesterday (Monday 23 September 2024).

Police executed a search warrant at the home, where they located and seized laptops, a mobile phone, and other items, which will undergo forensic examination.

The man was taken to Bathurst Police Station and charged with use carriage service to threaten to kill; hinder or resist police officer in the execution of duty and fail to comply digital evidence access order direction.

The man was refused bail to appear at Bathurst Local Court tomorrow (Wednesday 25 September 2024).

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