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Over 1.57 million Australians are now ‘At Risk’ of ‘mortgage stress’ representing 30.3% of mortgage holders

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New research from Roy Morgan shows a record high 1,573,000 mortgage holders (30.3%) were ‘At Risk’ of ‘mortgage stress’ in the three months to September 2023.
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Over 1.57 million Australians are now ‘At Risk’ of ‘mortgage stress’ representing 30.3% of mortgage holders

 

New research from Roy Morgan shows a record high 1,573,000 mortgage holders (30.3%) were ‘At Risk’ of ‘mortgage stress’ in the three months to September 2023. This period encompassed three RBA meetings at which interest rates were left unchanged.

The figures for September represent a new record high, up 7,000 on a month ago.

Over 760,000 more households at risk of mortgage stress after a year of interest rate increases

The number of Australians ‘At Risk’ of mortgage stress has increased by 766,000 since May 2022 when the RBA began a cycle of interest rate increases. Official interest rates are now at 4.1% in October 2023, the highest official interest rates since May 2012, over a decade ago.

The number of Australians ‘At Risk’ of mortgage stress (1,573,000) is at a record high. The proportion of mortgage holders at 30.3% remains below the record highs reached during the Global Financial Crisis of 15 years ago because of the larger size of the Australian mortgage market today. The record high of 35.6% of mortgage holders in mortgage stress was reached in mid-2008.

The number of mortgage holders considered ‘Extremely At Risk’, is now numbered at 1,043,000 (20.5%) which is now significantly above the long-term average over the last 15 years of 15.3%.

Mortgage Stress – Owner-Occupied Mortgage-Holders

Source: Roy Morgan Single Source (Australia), average interviews per 3 month period April 2007 – September 2023, n=2,759.

Source: Roy Morgan Single Source (Australia), average interviews per 3 month period April 2007 – September 2023, n=2,759.
Base: Australians 14+ with owner occupied home loan.

Mortgages ‘At Risk’ set to increase to over 1.58 million if RBA raises rates by +0.25% in November

Roy Morgan has modelled the impact of two potential RBA interest rate increases of +0.25% in both November (+0.25% to 4.35%) and December (+0.25% to 4.6%).

In September, 30.3% of mortgage holders, 1,573,000, were considered ‘At Risk’ and this would increase to 30.4% of mortgage holders by November 2023 if the RBA increases interest rates next week.

If the RBA raises interest rates by +0.25% in November to 4.35%, there will be 30.4% (up 0.1% points) of mortgage holders, 1,581,000, considered ‘At Risk’ in November 2023 – an increase of 8,000.

If the RBA raises interest rates by a further +0.25% in December to 4.6%, there will be 31.0% (up 0.7% points) of mortgage holders, 1,612,000, considered ‘At Risk’ in December 2023 – an increase of 39,000.

Mortgage Risk at different level of interest rate increases in November & December 2023

Source: Roy Morgan Single Source (Australia), July – September 2023, n=3,836. Base: Australians 14+ with owner occupied home loan.

Source: Roy Morgan Single Source (Australia), July – September 2023, n=3,836. Base: Australians 14+ with owner occupied home loan.

How are mortgage holders considered ‘At Risk’ or ‘Extremely At Risk’ determined?

Roy Morgan considers the risk of ‘mortgage stress’ among Mortgage holders in two ways:

Mortgage holders are considered ‘At Risk’ if their mortgage repayments are greater than a certain percentage of household income – depending on income and spending.

Mortgage holders are considered ‘Extremely at Risk’ if even the ‘interest only’ is over a certain proportion of household income.

Unemployment is the key factor which has the largest impact on income and mortgage stress

It is worth understanding that this is a conservative model, essentially assuming all other factors remain the same. The latest Roy Morgan unemployment estimates for September show almost one-in-five Australian workers are either unemployed or under-employed – 2,893,000 (18.9% of the workforce); (‘Real’ unemployment drops to 10.2% in September – now 2.9 million are unemployed (1.6 million) or under-employed (1.3 million)) – an increase of 129,000 (+0.3% points) on a year ago.

While all eyes are on interest rates the greatest impact on an individual, or household’s, ability to pay their mortgage is not interest rates, it’s if they lose their job or main source of income.

New research from Roy Morgan shows a record high 1,573,000 mortgage holders (30.3%) were ‘At Risk’ of ‘mortgage stress’ in the three months to September 2023.

New research from Roy Morgan shows a record high 1,573,000 mortgage holders (30.3%) were ‘At Risk’ of ‘mortgage stress’ in the three months to September 2023.

Michele Levine, CEO Roy Morgan, says mortgage stress increased to a new record high in September with 1,573,000 mortgage holders considered ‘At Risk’ of mortgage stress as the RBA’s series of 12 interest rate increases continue to flow through to the wider mortgage market:

“The latest Roy Morgan data shows mortgage stress in the Australian housing market has increased to a new record high of 1,573,000 mortgage holders defined as ‘At Risk’ in September 2023. This represents a substantial increase of 766,000 mortgage holders since the RBA began a record-breaking series of interest rate increases nearly eighteen months ago in May 2022.

“The figures for September 2023 take into account all twelve RBA interest rate increases which lifted official interest rates from 0.1% in May last year to 4.1% by June 2023. Since then, the RBA has decided to leave interest rates unchanged at its last four meetings.

“The RBA’s decision to leave interest rates unchanged in recent months came as inflation decreased compared to earlier this year. However, in recent months inflation has ‘reaccelerated’ and moved upwards. The latest ABS CPI monthly figures for the year to September 2023 show Australian inflation at 5.6%, up 0.4% points from August and up 0.7% points over the last two months.

“This is the first time official inflation has increased for two straight months so far this year – the last time was at the cyclical peak in December 2022 at 8.4%. The increases to inflation are not surprising though considering the increase in energy and fuel prices in recent months.

“The average retail petrol price has averaged above $1.90 per litre for a record 12 straight weeks since early August – beating a previous record run at such a high price in May-July 2022. During mid-2022 Inflation Expectations increased rapidly from 5.3% to 5.9% – up 0.6% points. The latest weekly Inflation Expectations data for mid-October shows the measure at 5.2% for the week to October 29 – up 0.3% points since mid-September and averaging 5.3% over the last four weeks.

“The increases to petrol prices are being driven by a decline in the value of the Australian Dollar which dropped below 63 US cents in mid-October to its lowest since November 2022. As long as the Australian Dollar stays low, and petrol prices stay high and even increase further, there will be additional inflationary pressures in the economy.

“These pressures are adding to calls for the RBA to raise interest rates again and are a key factor for why we have modelled two further interest rate increases. If the RBA does raise interest rates next week by 0.25%, Roy Morgan forecasts mortgage stress is set to increase to over 1.58 million mortgage holders (30.4%) considered ‘At Risk’.

“Of even more concern is the rise in mortgage holders considered ‘Extremely At Risk’, now estimated at 1,043,000 in September 2023. This figure has more than doubled since the RBA began raising interest rates, representing an increase of over 560,000 mortgage holders.

“When considering the data on mortgage stress, it is always important to appreciate interest rates are only one of the variables that determines whether a mortgage holder is considered ‘At Risk’. The variable that has the largest impact on whether a borrower falls into the ‘At Risk’ category is related to household income – which is directly related to employment.

“The latest figures on mortgage stress show that rising interest rates are causing a large increase in the number of mortgage holders considered ‘At Risk’ and further increases will spike these numbers even further. If there is a sharp rise in unemployment, mortgage stress is set to increase even more.”

These are the latest findings from Roy Morgan’s Single Source Survey, based on in-depth interviews conducted with over 60,000 Australians each year including over 10,000 owner-occupied mortgage-holders.

 

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A Step-By-Step Guide to Growing Your Own Avocado Tree

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A Step-By-Step Guide to Growing Your Own Avocado Tree

 

By Liam Jennings

Nothing compares to the satisfaction of growing your own fresh produce, and one of the most rewarding plants to cultivate is the humble avocado tree. With its creamy fruit enjoyed in everything from salads to smoothies, the avocado has become a staple in many kitchens. But instead of heading to the store, why not grow your own tree at home?

Do You Need Two Avocado Trees to Get Fruit?

No, you don’t! A single avocado tree is capable of producing fruit on its own, as most varieties have both male and female flower phases on the same plant, allowing for self-pollination.

Avocado trees have a unique flowering process. Varieties are divided into two types based on their flowering patterns:

  • Group A: Flowers open as female in the morning, close, and then reopen as male the following afternoon.
  • Group B: Flowers open as female in the afternoon, close, and reopen as male the next morning.

While this alternating pattern usually allows self-pollination, there are times when the flowers’ male and female phases don’t overlap perfectly. In such cases, self-pollination may not occur, so planting different varieties nearby can improve the chances of successful pollination. This is why many avocado growers opt to plant multiple trees to ensure a reliable fruit set.

How to Sprout an Avocado Seed

Growing an avocado tree from seed is surprisingly simple and a fun project for any home gardener. You only need three basic things to get started: an avocado, three toothpicks, and a glass of water.

Start by carefully removing the pit from the avocado and giving it a good rinse to remove any remaining fruit. Identify the flat end of the seed (which will face downward) and the pointed end (which should face upward). Next, insert three toothpicks evenly around the seed’s middle, creating a support to suspend the bottom half in water. Place the seed in a glass of water, ensuring the flat bottom end is submerged.

Change the water regularly to keep it fresh. Within 2 to 4 weeks, you should see roots emerging from the bottom and a sprout starting to grow from the top. If nothing happens after a few weeks, don’t be discouraged—simply try again! Growing plants from seed is always a bit of trial and error.

Optimal Conditions for Growing Avocado Trees

Avocado trees thrive in tropical and subtropical climates, but with proper care, they can also grow well in warm temperate and cooler regions where frost is minimal or non-existent. Some cold-hardy varieties can withstand temperatures as low as -5°C, though frost tolerance varies depending on the cultivar, so it’s essential to check the label before purchasing.

Best Environment for Avocado Trees

Avocado trees flourish in full sun and should be planted in a location protected from strong winds. Young trees are susceptible to sunburn, particularly in the intense summer sun. To prevent this, consider applying a diluted whitewash to the trunk. Once established, avocado trees are hardy and can withstand a range of conditions.

Ideal Soil for Avocado Trees

The key to healthy avocado growth lies in the soil. Avocado trees prefer deep, fertile, and well-draining soil. A few weeks before planting, enrich the soil by incorporating well-aged cow manure and a generous amount of blood and bone.

For those growing avocado trees in pots, it’s crucial to use a high-quality, free-draining potting mix. This ensures proper root health and reduces the risk of root rot.

Best Time to Plant an Avocado Tree

In tropical and subtropical areas, you can plant avocado trees year-round. However, in cooler regions, it’s best to plant during spring when the risk of frost is low.

To plant, dig a hole large enough to comfortably fit the tree’s root ball. Gently remove the tree from its pot, tease out the roots, and place it in the hole. Backfill with soil, apply mulch around the base, and water well.

Watering Requirements

Regular watering is vital, especially when the tree is young. However, it’s important to avoid overwatering, as avocado trees dislike “wet feet” (waterlogged roots). Allow the soil to dry slightly between waterings to prevent root rot.

Fertilising Avocado Trees

Young avocado trees benefit from regular feeding with a complete fertiliser to encourage healthy growth. Once the tree matures and begins producing fruit, switch to feeding with organic chook manure or a complete fertiliser during fruit set. Repeat this feeding process in summer and early autumn to support fruit development and overall tree health.

When to Harvest Avocados

Avocados reach maturity while still on the tree but only begin to ripen after being picked. To check if your avocados are ready for harvest, pick one and leave it indoors to ripen. If it softens without shrivelling, it’s a sign that the rest of the crop is ready to be picked.

There’s no need to harvest all the fruit at once; however, don’t leave them hanging on the tree for too long, as this can reduce the tree’s fruiting potential for the following season. The time it takes for avocados to mature varies based on the local climate—trees in tropical and subtropical regions will typically produce ripe fruit earlier, while those in temperate and cooler areas may take longer.

 

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Pets In The Park Opens Northern Rivers Clinic to Support Homeless Pet Owners

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Pets In The Park Opens Northern Rivers Clinic to Support Homeless Pet Owners

 

By Jeff Gibbs

Pets In The Park (PITP), a national charity providing free veterinary care to pets of people experiencing homelessness, has announced the opening of its newest clinic in Northern Rivers, a region facing some of the highest homelessness rates in Australia.

For many individuals experiencing homelessness, pets are a source of companionship, hope, and unconditional love. However, the financial burden of pet ownership often forces them to prioritise their pets’ needs over their own, making access to basic veterinary care a significant challenge.

“Pet ownership brings immense joy and enrichment, but also substantial financial challenges,” said Jay Potter, President of PITP. “Too often, owners sacrifice their own welfare to ensure their pets’ health. This is where Pets In The Park plays such an important role.”

A Monthly Lifeline for Homeless Pet Owners

The new monthly clinic, held in Byron Bay, will support individuals and their pets living rough in Ballina, Lismore, Mullumbimby, Evans Head, and surrounding areas. Accessible via referrals from local homelessness support organizations, the clinic will offer free veterinary consultations, vaccinations, parasite control, microchipping, and treatment of common ailments.

In addition to healthcare, donated pet products, including food, bedding, and toys, will be distributed to enhance the pets’ overall well-being.

A Collaborative Effort

The clinic’s establishment is the result of a year of dedicated planning by veterinary professionals Dr. Elizabeth Settles, Helen McGregor, and Lauren Archer, working with PITP’s national office. They secured a venue, gathered local veterinarians and vet nurses willing to volunteer, and developed a sustainable model to improve healthcare for these pets.

“This started with a conversation about the parvo outbreak in Lismore and how unaffordable vaccines were impacting puppies,” said Dr. Settles. “It evolved into creating a clinic to address broader veterinary care challenges for homeless pet owners.”

From March 2025, students from Southern Cross University’s new Vet Science program will join as volunteers, gaining invaluable experience while helping the community.

A Region in Crisis

The Northern Rivers region faces an acute housing crisis, with skyrocketing property prices and a highly competitive rental market that often excludes pet owners. Many individuals live in cars or refuse emergency accommodation to keep their pets. The lingering effects of natural disasters have only exacerbated these challenges.

Get Involved

Veterinary professionals are invited to volunteer through PITP’s website at www.petsinthepark.org.au. The charity relies solely on donations, with contributions over $2 tax-deductible in Australia.

To learn more about Pets In The Park, click here.

By providing essential services to pets and their owners, Pets In The Park is making a critical difference in the lives of Northern Rivers residents, helping them navigate the challenges of homelessness while keeping their beloved companions by their side.

 

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New Agricultural Levies Legislation to Simplify Obligations

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New Agricultural Levies Legislation to Simplify Obligations

 

By Ian Rogers

A streamlined agricultural levies framework is set to replace the existing system from January 1, 2025, simplifying obligations for participants and making the system more accessible and efficient.

The overhaul consolidates more than 50 pieces of legislation governing 110 levies and charges across 75 commodities and 18 recipient bodies into just five Acts and subordinate legislation.

Deputy Secretary for Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry Policy, Matt Lowe, highlighted the benefits of the new framework.

“From the start of 2025, the new legislation will make obligations clearer for levy payers, collection agents, and bodies that receive levies, while also supporting industries looking to introduce new levies or modify existing ones,” Mr. Lowe said.

“This more flexible and consistent approach will benefit current and future participants in the levy system, ensuring industries can maximise the advantages of collective investment.”

The revamped legislation aims to strengthen the partnership between industry and government by reducing administrative complexity and costs. It will continue to support investment in research and development, marketing, biosecurity, and residue testing.

Increased Certainty and Flexibility

Research and Development Corporations (RDCs) are set to enjoy greater funding certainty under the new framework, which provides a foundation for ongoing improvements.

“Our agricultural levy system has been a cornerstone of industry investment for decades, and the new framework will make it stronger and more effective,” Mr. Lowe said.

The changes follow a comprehensive review that revealed the previous system, developed over the past 30 years, had grown in an ad hoc manner and was no longer fit for purpose.

Extensive Consultation and Key Features

The Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry conducted extensive consultations with industry groups, levy payers, collection agents, and recipient bodies to develop the new framework.

Key elements of the levy system, such as levy rates and their intended purposes, remain unchanged. However, participants may notice administrative updates, including new forms and due dates.

Levies are collected from farmers, producers, processors, and exporters, with any proposed changes requiring majority support among levy payers.

Continued Investment in Industry Growth

In the 2023-24 fiscal year, entities such as RDCs, Animal Health Australia, Plant Health Australia, and the National Residue Survey received over $600 million in levy payments. The Australian Government further contributed $470 million in matching funding for research and development activities.

This updated legislation ensures the levy system remains a robust tool for supporting Australia’s primary industries, enabling collective investment in strategic priorities that drive industry growth and sustainability.

 

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Improving Mental Health Support for Farmers Amid Droughts and Rising Temperatures

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Improving Mental Health Support for Farmers Amid Droughts and Rising Temperatures

 

By Ian Rogers

The mental health of Australian farmers is increasingly at risk as droughts and rising temperatures intensify due to climate change. These extreme weather events exacerbate financial hardship, degrade environmental conditions, and reduce employment opportunities, often triggering mental health issues such as anxiety, depression, and post-traumatic stress disorder.

The Impact of Drought and Heat

Research shows that extreme droughts are strongly associated with higher suicide rates in rural areas, with male and younger farmers particularly vulnerable. A study in the Murray-Darling Basin revealed that extreme droughts raised the suicide rate by nearly one-third, and hotter temperatures also contributed to increased suicide rates.

A 2023 survey by Norco and the National Farmers’ Federation found nearly half of Australian farmers had experienced thoughts of self-harm or suicide, with the top stressors being:

  • Weather and natural disasters
  • Financial pressures
  • Inflation and rising costs

Current Interventions and Challenges

Existing mental health interventions in rural areas include telehealth services, men’s sheds, and drought counseling. However, stigma around mental health, especially among men, remains a barrier to seeking help. Farmers often prefer discussing issues with trusted individuals, highlighting the need for community-based mental health advocates.

A Way Forward

To address these challenges, a comprehensive approach is required:

  • Break the Stigma: Encourage open conversations and peer support through initiatives like a “Farmers’ Army” of mental health advocates.
  • Build Resilience: Promote drought preparedness, financial literacy, and alternative income sources such as natural capital.
  • Policy and Research: Develop regional development policies and invest in research to better understand and address the issue.
  • Expand Access: Increase funding and availability of mental health services in rural communities.

Seeking Help

If you or someone you know needs support, reach out to organizations like Lifeline (13 11 14) or Beyond Blue (1300 224 636). Breaking the cycle of mental health struggles is critical for the wellbeing of Australia’s farming communities.

 

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Higher Water Prices Threaten Farms and Drive Up Cost of Living

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Higher Water Prices Threaten Farms and Drive Up Cost of Living

 

By Ian Rogers

Proposals to increase water costs for agricultural use by as much as 245% over the next five years could devastate Australian farmers, pushing many out of business and driving up food prices for consumers.

NSW Irrigators’ Council CEO Claire Miller warned that the proposed hikes would exacerbate the challenges already faced by local farmers, who are struggling to compete with an influx of cheap imported food.

“Food imports have surged by $7 billion in just two years, reaching nearly $40 billion in 2023-24,” Ms. Miller said.

“Our farmers adhere to stringent environmental and health standards, which come with significant costs. These include rising expenses in interest rates, fuel, insurance, machinery, wages, energy, and water allocations, compounded by State and Commonwealth environmental water recovery policies.”

Calls for Government Intervention

Ms. Miller urged the NSW Government to intervene, noting the Premier had already stepped in to limit urban water bill increases to 50% over five years for Sydney and Newcastle households.

“If the NSW Government wants its households to eat local and support our farmers, it must also advocate for rural water users. Without intervention, exorbitant water prices could prove the final straw for many,” she said.

“These proposed increases don’t just affect farmers. All WaterNSW customers with water licences, including councils, food manufacturers, and other industries, could face skyrocketing costs. This could lead to higher consumer prices and widespread economic consequences.”

A Broken Pricing Model

Ms. Miller criticised the current water pricing model as unsustainable, noting that small and medium family farms, which form the backbone of many rural communities, are especially vulnerable.

“Farmers can’t keep absorbing costs indefinitely. If they can’t pass these increases on to consumers, they’ll be forced out of business, with devastating consequences for rural communities,” she said.

“The ripple effects include business closures, job losses, and the collapse of industries critical to regional economies and social wellbeing.”

Ms. Miller also highlighted the inequity of asking rural water customers to shoulder the growing costs of public good reforms, including environmental, recreational, and Aboriginal programs, which benefit the broader community.

“Rural water users should not bear the costs of delivering reforms intended for the public good,” she added.

Advocacy and Next Steps

The NSW Irrigators’ Council has submitted a formal response to the Independent Pricing and Regulatory Tribunal (IPART), calling for a review of the water pricing model to ensure farmers and rural communities are not disproportionately affected.

For more details, the NSWIC submission can be viewed here.

 

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