National News Australia

Identifying trends among Australia’s underperforming suburban property markets

Published

2 years ago

1 August 2022

JeffG

Advertisements

Identifying trends among Australia’s underperforming suburban property markets

Sydney and Melbourne have been the first capital city housing markets to record negative monthly growth rates this year, joined most recently by Hobart in April, its first fall after 22 consecutive months of growth.

But within each of those areas as well as Australia’s other capital cities, micro-market trends are emerging, coinciding with higher interest rates, rising stock levels, lower confidence, and a limit to how much buyers are willing or able to spend.

The suburbs which recorded the lowest quarterly change in value growth for the three months to April, listed here, highlights predominantly inner city and upper quartile suburbs found in Sydney, Melbourne and Canberra.

In cities still recording an upswing in values such as Brisbane, underperforming suburbs are more skewed towards high-density areas weighed down by a high proportion of units. In Adelaide and Perth, suburbs that may be classified as unaffordable dominated the list.

CoreLogic Research Director Tim Lawless said most of the areas identified registered upper quartile housing values, with a median well in excess of the broader region.

“We are seeing this trend more broadly, where the upper quartile of the market has softened out more visibly than the middle to lower end of the market,” he said.

“These softer conditions come after a stronger performance across the premium end of the market through the growth phase. Historically more expensive housing markets tend to lead the upswing, but also lead the downturn, which is what we seem to be seeing at the moment.”

Exceptions to the upper quartile trend can be found among Brisbane suburbs. The city as a whole remains in an upswing phase, with values up 29.8% in the year to April. However, among the growth are sectors of the market which haven’t performed as well, such as higher density inner ring suburbs including South Brisbane and West End where slight falls in values were recorded in the last three months.

In Darwin, a handful of the city’s more affordable suburbs are ranked lowest for growth rates possibly due to less constraints on housing affordability. Mr Lawless said the dwelling value to income ratio in Australia’s top end is far lower, at 3.9, relative to other capital cities, which could be underpinning demand among buyers upgrading.

Ahead of CoreLogic’s monthly Home Value Index release on June 1, Head of Research Eliza Owen said in a downturn, expensive, and more leveraged suburbs, were sensitive to changes in credit conditions.

She said while the characteristics had long been observed in the real estate sector, the RBA also published similar research insights in 2020.

“Higher income households tend to hold more housing debt to income, so do property investors,” Ms Owen said.

“That’s why the high end of the market can often be more sensitive to changes in interest rates or credit conditions, but this can also affect some other popular investment markets like inner city areas.”

The biggest common factor across Sydney and Melbourne, and house markets in these cities more broadly, is the potential for higher volatility among more expensive pockets.

“These are also areas that have experienced some of the most extraordinary gains through the cycle, and have been a bellwether for other parts of the market historically,” Ms Owen said.

“If we take Beaconsfield in Sydney’s inner city for example, it may look like the area has not had much growth, but that’s because it had a much earlier cyclical peak, at annual growth of 33.7% back in the 12 months to October 2021.

“Sharp deterioration in demand across the suburb has now dragged down the annual growth rate to just 2%. The same can be said for houses in Surry Hills in Sydney’s inner east, where annual growth peaked at 28.9% in the same month, and nearby Darlinghurst at 26.9%. These higher-end house markets generally have higher peaks in growth during boom times and sharper declines in the downswing phase.”

Considering dwelling values – the combination of houses and units – Ms Owen identifies clear trends particularly among new buyers, who are not able to pay vendor prices due to limited borrowing power and the affordability ceiling, which will impact some of the more expensive parts of each market.

“There tends to be micro-markets where dynamics such as stretched affordability can manifest in a single suburb pushing buyers into the next most affordable suburb,” she said.

“One good example of this is Newtown, a dynamic and popular suburb in Sydney’s inner west. It’s also relatively expensive with a median dwelling value of almost $1.5 million yet it recorded a quarterly decline of -5.5%, which suggests buyers may be at their limit and are being forced to find alternative options within their budgets.”

An analysis of the lower, middle and upper quartile markets highlights the volatility of higher value areas, which is currently leading the downturn.

Advertisements

Related Topics:Identifying trends among Australia’s underperforming suburban property markets

Up Next

PUBLIC FEEDBACK SOUGHT ON WAYS TO IMPROVE THE NSW HOME BUILDING INSURANCE SCHEME

Don't Miss

Home Value Index continues to fall, down -0.6% in June

Port Macquarie

Call for more mates to support Port Macquarie’s Sailability

Published

1 week ago

27 September 2024

JeffG

Advertisements

Call for more mates to support Port Macquarie’s Sailability

Vision available: https://tinyurl.com/mrz9nhz7

The Port Macquarie community group, Sailability, is calling for volunteers ahead of this year’s sailing season, as the club prepares to take to the Hastings River again on Wednesday 25 September.
Sailability is a volunteer organisation whose mission is to offer people with varying abilities freedom on the water.
The club uses a fleet of specially designed sailing dinghies with simplified controls and enhanced stability to hold weekly sailing days for people living with physical and mental disability.
The club received $55,920 from the NSW Government to extend its carpark and complete landscaping around its new boat shed and accessible amenities block, as well as to install six accessible picnic tables in McInherney Park.
The not-for-profit club is the only organisation of its kind in the area and its 80 volunteers cater to approximately 60 sailors each week.
The group provides its services at no charge, with sailors coming from disability support units at local schools in Port Macquarie, Wauchope, Laurieton and Kempsey, as well as disability service providers, aged care facilities and private enquiries.
Census statistics for show there are approximately 6,000 people with serious or profound disability in the Port Macquarie area, and the club struggles to meet the demand for its services.
People keen to get involved in volunteering with the club can attend McInherney Park on Wednesdays between September and May to learn more, or go to www.sailabilitypm.com.au and click the Contact Us tab.
Minister for Agriculture and Regional NSW, Tara Moriarty said:
“This fantastic community group is really making waves in terms of improving quality of life for people in the Port Macquarie area with disability.
“It’s wonderful to see people experience a sense of achievement and improved self-confidence and self-esteem through their participation in Sailability’s program.”
Parliamentary Secretary for Disability Inclusion, Liesl Tesch* said:
“Sailability is a beacon of hope and inclusion in Port Macquarie. By fostering a sense of belonging on the water, they’re not only enhancing the lives of people with disability but also enriching the entire community.”
“The amazing volunteers at Sailability do such important work helping build confidence and resilience for so many people in the region each week.”
*Liesl Tesch is a seven-time Paralympian including winning two gold medals in sailing
Sailability Port Macquarie volunteer Rick Eller said:
“The club has come a long way from humble beginnings when it launched in December 2012, we were using two borrowed boats at the time, we had a handful of volunteers, and we were borrowing life jackets from the SES or emergency services here in Port Macquarie.
“The best part about working for Sailability is the expressions and the smiles when the people who’ve been sailing come back to the pontoon, that’s what makes it all worthwhile.”
Sailability Port Macquarie Vice President Julie Constable said:
“It’s extremely important that people are aware that people with a disability are very able and keen to get out into society so something like this is off great benefit to the community.”

Advertisements

Cowra

Teen charged with multiple property offences in Cowra – Operation Regional Mongoose

Published

1 week ago

26 September 2024

JeffG

Advertisements

Teen charged with multiple property offences in Cowra – Operation Regional Mongoose

Tuesday, 24 September 2024 02:01:49 PM
A teen will face court charged following investigations into multiple property-related offences in the state’s central west.

Operation Regional Mongoose is a high-visibility police operation to tackle serious property-related crime, committed predominately by young offenders.

About 4.30am yesterday (Monday 23 September 2024), emergency services were call to the low level bridge adjacent to Grenfell Road, Cowra, following reports a Subaru sedan was well alight.

Officers attached to Chifley Police District attended and commenced an investigation into the circumstances surrounding the fire.

Checks revealed the car was allegedly stolen from a home on Liverpool Street, Cowra, between 7.30pm on Sunday (22 September 2024), and 4.30am yesterday (Monday 23 September 2024.

Following inquiries, about 2am today (Tuesday 24 September 2024), police were patrolling Young Street, Cowra, when they stopped and spoke to a 17-year-old boy sitting in a park.

The boy was subjected to a search, and police located gloves, a box cutter and keys to a Subaru.

He was taken to Cowra Police Station and charged with;

Steal motor vehicle
Aggravated break and enter dwelling in company steal
Take and drive conveyance without consent of owner
Custody of knife in public place
Possess housebreaking implements
Never licensed person drive vehicle on road
Goods in personal custody suspected being stolen, and
Commit S154C offence and disseminate.
The teen was refused bail to appear at a Children’s court today (Tuesday 24 September 2024).

Inquiries under Operation Regional Mongoose continue.

Anyone with information about Operation Regional Mongoose is urged to contact Crime Stoppers: 1800 333 000 or https://nsw.crimestoppers.com.au. Information is treated in strict confidence. The public is reminded not to report information via NSW Police social media pages.

Advertisements

Bathurst

Man charged after allegedly threatening police – Bathurst

Published

1 week ago

26 September 2024

JeffG

Advertisements

Man charged after allegedly threatening police – Bathurst

Tuesday, 24 September 2024 12:58:23 PM

A man is due to face court over alleged death threats made towards police officers in the Central West region.

About 10pm on Saturday 21 September 2024, a man allegedly called Triple 0 and threatened to kill a police officer and a judicial officer.

Officers attached to Chifley Police District were alerted and commenced an investigation into the incident.

Following extensive inquiries, police arrested a 37-year-old man at a home on Seymour Street, Bathurst, about 12.15pm yesterday (Monday 23 September 2024).

Police executed a search warrant at the home, where they located and seized laptops, a mobile phone, and other items, which will undergo forensic examination.

The man was taken to Bathurst Police Station and charged with use carriage service to threaten to kill; hinder or resist police officer in the execution of duty and fail to comply digital evidence access order direction.

The man was refused bail to appear at Bathurst Local Court tomorrow (Wednesday 25 September 2024).

Advertisements