Agriculture Production Forecast To Decline

Catch Phrase: Drier Outlook And Costs To Pressure Farm Returns

Australian agricultural production is forecast to ease during 2026–27, with the latest ABARES outlook predicting lower crop yields, falling livestock prices and ongoing cost pressures.

After a record 2025–26, the value of agricultural production is expected to fall 5 per cent to $98.3 billion.

Agricultural export value is also forecast to decline by $7 billion to $74.8 billion.

ABARES Acting Executive Director David Galeano said farm decisions were being shaped by seasonal conditions and profitability.

“Despite the headwinds facing the sector, farmers who have received favourable rainfall are making the most of the opportunity,” Mr Galeano said.

However, he warned that variable rainfall and forecasts of drier winter conditions were reducing winter crop plantings and pasture growth in several regions.

The value of crop production is expected to fall to $50.9 billion, while winter crop output is forecast to decline 21 per cent to 54.5 million tonnes.

Livestock and livestock product value is also forecast to decline to $47.4 billion due to lower market prices.

Higher fuel and fertiliser costs continue to challenge producers, with average broadacre farm profits forecast to decline by 70 per cent during 2026–27.

Despite the softer outlook, ABARES says agriculture remains resilient, with many farmers continuing to adapt and maximise opportunities where seasonal conditions allow.

By The Northern Rivers Rural News Desk