ABARES Weekly Australian Climate, Water and Agricultural Update

In the week ending 27 March 2024, widespread rainfall and isolated thunderstorms associated with monsoonal activity, ex-Tropical Cyclone Megan, and series of troughs were recorded across northern, central and eastern Australia.

Across cropping regions, rainfall totals up to 150 millimetres were recorded across Queensland and up to 100 millimetres recorded across parts of northern New South Wales. Heavy falls in Queensland would have disrupted harvest of summer crops.

Over the coming days, showers and storms associated with a low-pressure system are expected to result in rainfall totals of up to 100 millimetres in the northern tropics and up to 50 millimetres in the central and eastern parts of the country.

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A wet week in much of Queensland’s cropping region will likely interrupt harvest of summer crops but boost soil moisture levels for winter crops, including in Victoria and New South Wales.

A drier week is expected in remaining cropping regions and will likely see a decline in soil moisture levels.

The national rainfall outlook is for a heightened probability of below average rainfall for much of Australia over the next three months.

Considering the recent declines in upper layer soil moisture levels and the heightened probability of below average rainfall over the next three months, livestock producers, especially those in southern Australia, are expected to experience below-average pasture production.

However, availability of accumulated standing dry matter and ample conserved fodder is likely to enable most livestock producers to maintain current production levels and stocking rates.

Water storage levels in the Murray-Darling Basin (MDB) decreased between 21 March 2024 and 28 March 2024 by 152 gigalitres (GL). Current volume of water held in storage is 17 114 GL, equivalent to 77% of total storage capacity. This is 13 percent or 2645 GL less than at the same time last year.

Allocation prices in the Victorian Murray below the Barmah Choke increased from $30 on 21 March 2024 to $37 on 28 March 2024. Prices are lower in the Murrumbidgee and regions above the Barmah choke due to the binding of the Murrumbidgee export limit and Barmah choke trade constraint.

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