Local Elections
Ninth councillor could decide mayor
Ninth councillor could decide mayor
By Tim Howard
The race to secure the ninth and final spot on Clarence Valley Council could also be decisive in deciding who becomes the next mayor.
With more than 31,000 votes counted since voting closed on September 14, the first seven or eight spots appear locked in, but a four-way battle is building for the final spot.
As of Saturday’s counting first time candidate Amanda Brien held ninth spot with 1505 first preference votes ahead of incumbent Karen Toms on 1410.
Also in the mix were former councillor Andrew Baker on 1131 and another incumbent, Ulmarra’s Steve Pickering, on 1093.
Two of the field, incumbent mayor Peter Johnston, who had 3731 votes and a 1.22 share of his quota and first time candidate Ray Smith who had 2415 and 0.73 of a quota, have begun canvassing for mayoral votes.
Both were confident they have four votes from those most likely to find themselves on council, but conceded the ninth councillor to be elected could hold the crucial vote for both of them.
Mr Johnstone said it appeared that either Ms Brien and Ms Toms were most likely to secure the last spot.
And he acknowledged that while he was sure of support from Ms Toms, his observations of the election campaign led him to believe Mr Smith would have Ms Brien’s support.
“She was giving out Ray Smith’s how to votes and he was giving out hers and they both had their corflutes up in Dougherty property,” Mr Johnstone said.
Mr Smith did not comment on the record about where his support came from because of uncertainty over the final result.
“I’ve had a couple of the potential councillors ring me to indicate their support if I stood,” he said.
“But I guess we really can’t do anything until the final nine have been declared.”
Mr Smith said the outcome would not be determined until early next month.
Former Grafton City Council general manager Ray Smith has emerged as an alternative mayoral candidate, claiming he has support from three other candidates likely to be elected to the council.
“I’ve been told the Declaration of the Poll will be on October 3,” Mr Smith said.
“And then the meeting to elect the mayor and deputy mayor will be on October 17.”
Before the poll is declared the vital, if complex, distribution of preferences will decide the formation of the next council.
The NSW Electoral Commission website has a description of the
“Where an elected candidate has a surplus of ballot papers over the quota, this surplus is transferred to the continuing candidates (i.e. those not yet elected or excluded).
“If multiple candidates are elected, each candidate’s surplus is transferred (one at a time) to the continuing candidates, from the highest surplus to the lowest.
“To transfer a surplus, all the ballot papers received by the elected candidate are sorted to their next preferred continuing candidate.
“Each ballot paper is then worth a portion of that surplus. This portion is called the transfer value.
“Example: if an elected candidate had 100 ballot papers and their surplus was 10 votes, then each ballot paper would be worth 0.1 of a vote.
:A continuing candidate receiving 20 of these ballot papers would therefore receive two of the 10 surplus votes.
“After each transfer of ballot papers (and their associated votes), if any more candidates have reached quota, they are elected and added to the queue of surpluses to be transferred.
“This transfer of surpluses continues (one at a time) until all have been transferred.
Then, if vacancies remain, the candidate with the lowest number of votes is excluded.
“All the ballot papers received by this candidate, including those received from surplus transfers, are sorted to the continuing candidates according to their next available preference.”
The preferences from excluded candidates are transferred as a full vote.
Both mayoral candidates are refining their pitches ahead of the vote.
Mr Johnstone said this election was more uncertain than the 2021 poll which was not decided until the 14th preference count.
Mr Johnstone also cautioned that other councillors could come forward as candidates for mayor or deputy.
“I know that Debrah (Novak) normally puts her hand up every time, so wouldn’t be surprised if she does again,” he said.
Mr Johnstone said he would back his record as mayor, even though he had only been in the position for a year.
“I think I’m hearing all the time from the community that I think I’ve done a good job,” he said.
“I’ve only been in place for a year, which normally, mayors are in place for at least two.
“Obviously, the elected mayors are in for four and but, you know, with a peer elected one, so every two years, and I’ve only had one, and what I’ve done is I’ve made a foundation.
“I think it’s a very good foundation.”
Mayoral incumbent Peter Johnstone says criticism of the voting patterns in council last term was not warranted.
Mr Smith has never stood for office, but has 30 years experience as a council general manager, including from 1993 to 2004 as general manager of the Grafton City Council.
He returned to the Clarence in 2022 and what he observed in the past two years convinced him to run for council and mayor.
“I was disappointed in the way it was operating,” he said. “There were factions in council and there were voting blocks more often than not, it went five, four, and I just felt that when you’re voting in a block, you’re not voting with your conscience, and that impedes good decision making, and therefore it becomes detrimental to the Clarence Valley.”
Mr Johnstone disputed Mr Smith’s description of the voting patterns.
He said he had created a spreadsheet of voting patterns on what he called “contentious issues”, votes decided 5-4 or 6-3.
“Now they’re no surprises with several,” he said.
“Alison and Karen voted together a lot, as did Ian and Bill.
“But then when you get away from that he people I voted with least are actually what I would have considered my best mates on council, Greg and Jeff.
“And yet, I voted very strongly with Ian and Bill, but also with Karen.
“So you know that I think this idea that there’s some sort of voting block, it isn’t borne out by the facts.”
Mr Smith said the council looked to be in a solid financial position and had done some good things over its last term.
But he said it had continued to alienate many in the community and he wanted to tackle this issue.
“My first priority would be improving the council’s engagement with the community, because that was certainly made loud and clear during the campaign process,” he said.
“The feedback I was receiving was just that lack of genuine engagement.
“Councillors were listening to the community, but you can listen, then you’ve got to put some action to what you’ve heard.”
Only one candidate, the Greens’ Greg Clancy, has indicated he would stand for the deputy’s job.
He was elected as deputy mayor on a ticket with Ian Tiley in 2021, but did not stand for election at the mayoral election last year. He was replaced by Jeff Smith, who, like Mr Tiley, did not run this time.
Dr Clancy was often critical of the last council’s leadership and decisions and said he would support Mr Smith’s bid to become mayor.
“I hope he can see his way clear to give me some support,” Dr Clancy said.
Preferences will be vital in Clarence poll
By Tim Howard
Some of your candidates don’t want anything to do with them, others wish they could ignore them and some will live and die for them.
They’re preferences and they are what are troubling the minds of a good number of candidates as time ticks away toward Saturday’s Clarence Valley Council election.
We talked with former Clarence Valley Council deputy mayor and election tragic Craig Howe about how preferences could play out in this year’s vote.
Mr Howe, who served two terms on council and finished as deputy mayor in 2016, has been happy to step away from local government, but he maintains a fascination with the electoral process.
At each local government election since 2016 he’s created and moderated a Facebook pages, Clarence Valley meet the candidates, where people can ask candidates pertinent questions about their reasons for running.
The page also runs mock poll where people can “vote” for their candidate of choice. But more on that later.
Mr Howe said the 2024 poll differs from any of the elections he has contested or witnessed since 2008.
“I can’t see there being a ‘Richie vote’,” he said, referring to the wildly popular vote the current Clarence MP Richie Williamson attracted when he stood for council from 2005 to 2021.
“When Richie left in 2021, people wondered who was going to pull those big numbers and it was Jeff Smith.”
He said the crucial thing was candidates reaching their quota.
The quota is determined by first dividing the aggregate number of formal first preferences by one more than the number of candidates to be elected. The quotient (disregarding the fraction) is increased by 1 to give the quota.
The NSW Electoral Commission has the number of electors in Clarence standing at 41,890.
In the voting system used in local elections once a candidate reach his or her quota the preferences were distributed to other candidates. Continued candidates also received the preferences of candidates who were eliminated during counting.
Former Clarence Valley Council deputy Mayor Craig Howe has cast his eyes over the field for the 2024 Clarence Valley Council elections and thinks preferences will play a bigger than usual part in deciding who will be on the next council.
Mr Howe said it anyone was going to poll big numbers this year it would most likely be someone well known in Grafton.
“Jeff Smith got it, and that’s because he owned the ice cream shop in Prince Street,” he said.
“You got a lot of votes from Grafton, and Grafton the big voter base, you know. So that that’s why I think Ray Smith might be a chance to pull in those sort of numbers.”
But Mr Howe said while this year Ray Smith and shared a surname, the recognition factor might not be the same.
“He hasn’t been around for a while, either, so maybe, you know, the younger people don’t necessarily know him,” he said.
He said Greg Clancy might be a chance to poll well, but he doubted if the numbers would as high as Williamson’s or Smith’s in previous elections.
But he said a new candidate might consider joining a ticket with someone like Dr Clancy, who has served two terms on the council.
Mr Howe said if you looked at the how to vote choice of candidate Mellissa Hellwig and Lynne Cairns you could see that pattern.
“Greg’s in one, Hellwig two, and Lynne Cairns three.” He said. “But then, if you look at Hellwig, she’s gone her one, and then Lynne Cairns at two, which what they’re hoping will happen is Greg’s preferences will flow from him to Hellwig, and then she’ll get her quota, and then the rest of them will find Greg’s will flow down to them.”
But Mr Howe said these ideas were conditional on candidates reaching their quotas, which might not happen.
He said there a lot of candidates from down river, who would be contesting a smaller voter base.
“It might not shape up this way at all,” Mr Howe said. “Voters might decide they want a balanced council and decide to pick someone from the conservative side and some from the not-so-conservative side.
“So then you have someone like Cristie Yager or Amanda Brien. Where do they fit into that.
“It could be the preferences don’t follow the how to vote cards and go everywhere.”
Mr Howe said his Facebook poll had been disappointing so far, with about 35 votes cast.
“It’s too small to be a really good sample at the moment,” he said.
“But even in 35 votes you can see a trend and at the moment some of those trends are very interesting and might worry a few candidates.”
Pushed to tip who he thought might make the council this year, Mr Howe said Ulmarra’s Cristie Yager was his bolter.
“She’s done very well getting recognition on social media and I like what she’s saying’ he said.
“She seems to be a person who cares about people and that’s what people want.”
Of the incumbents he thinks the Mayor Peter Johnstone would be re-elected, despite his rocky start to the leadership role.
He thought Steve Pickering and Debrah Novak were also likely to be re-elected but thought some of the incumbents might struggle.
“With the ones that retired this time, there could be five maybe even six new faces on council when the counting’s down,” he said.
For more local elections and Clarence preferences news, click here.
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