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Real Estate

Hedonic Home Value Index

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Hedonic Home Value Index

CoreLogic: Australia’s smallest cities drive growth in national housing values as Sydney and Melbourne decline CoreLogic’s national Home Value Index (HVI) was up 0.7% in March, a subtle increase on the 0.6% lift recorded in February. The uptick in the monthly rate of growth was primarily driven by stronger conditions in Brisbane, Adelaide, Perth and the ACT, along with several regional areas, offsetting a slip in values across Sydney and Melbourne.

The first quarter of the year has seen Australian dwelling values rise by 2.4%, adding approximately $17,000 to the value of an Australian dwelling. A year ago, values were rising at more than double the current pace, up 5.8% over the three months to March 2021 before the quarterly rate of growth peaked at 7.0% over the three months ending May 2021.

Sydney’s growth rate is showing the most significant slowdown, falling from a peak of 9.3% in the three months to May 2021, to 0.3% in the first quarter of 2022. Melbourne’s housing market has seen the quarterly rate of growth slow from 5.8% in April last year to just 0.1% over the past three months.

CoreLogic’s research director, Tim Lawless, says while the monthly rate of growth was up among some cities and regions, there is mounting evidence that housing growth rates are losing momentum.

“Virtually every capital city and major rest-of-state region has moved through a peak in the trend rate of growth some time last year or earlier this year,” Mr Lawless said.

“The sharpest slowdown has been in Sydney, where housing prices are the most unaffordable, advertised supply is trending higher and sales activity is down over the year.”

“There are a few exceptions to the slowdown, with regional South Australia recording a new cyclical high over the March quarter and some momentum is returning to the Perth market where the rate of growth is once again trending higher since WA re-opened its borders.”

With the softening in market conditions, the national annual growth rate (18.2%) has fallen below the 20% mark for the first time since August last year, after reaching a cyclical high of 22.4% in January 2021.

Mr Lawless said the annual growth trend will fall sharply in the coming months, as the strong gains recorded in early 2021 drop out of the 12-month calculation.

National housing turnover is also easing, with preliminary transaction estimates for the March quarter tracking 14.3% lower than the same period in 2021, but still 12.2% above the previous five-year average.

“Nationally, the volume of housing sales is coming off record highs but there is some diversity across the capital cities in these figures as well. Our estimate of sales activity through the March quarter is 39% lower than a year ago in Sydney and 27% lower in Melbourne, while stronger markets like Brisbane and Adelaide have recorded a rise in sales over the same period.”

Regional Australia continues to show some resilience to a slowdown with housing values across the combined regional areas rising at more than three times the pace of the combined capital cities through the March quarter. Regional dwelling values increased 5.1% in the three months to March, compared with the 1.5% increase recorded across the combined capital cities. The rolling quarterly growth rate in regional dwelling values has consistently held above the 5% mark since February 2021.

Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) regional population growth figures for FY2020-21 help explain the strong housing conditions outside of the capitals. The number of people living in regional areas of Australia increased by almost 71,000 residents, while residents living in the capitals fell by approximately 26,000 (mostly due to a sharp drop in Melbourne and, to a lesser extent, Sydney).

 

 

Trends in property listings continue to help explain the divergence in housing growth trends.

Advertised inventory, at a national level, is tracking 30% below the previous five-year average over the four weeks ending March 27. However, a more detailed analysis of each capital city highlights significant differences in the total number of homes available to purchase.

In Melbourne, total advertised supply was 8% above the previous five-year average towards the end of March, while the number of homes available to purchase in Sydney had virtually normalised to be 7.5% higher than a year ago and only 2.6% below the five-year average. Higher stock levels across these markets can be explained by an above average flow of new listings coming on the market in combination with a drop in buyer demand.

“With higher inventory levels and less competition, buyers are gradually moving back into the driver’s seat. That means more time to deliberate on their purchase decisions and negotiate on price,” Mr Lawless said.

In contrast, advertised stock levels in Brisbane and Adelaide remain more than 40% below the previous five-year average levels and around 20% to 25% down on a year ago. It’s a similar scenario across regional Australia, where total advertised housing stock was 22% below last year’s level and 43% below the previous five-year average. Such low inventory levels along with persistently high buyer demand continues to create strong selling conditions in these areas, supporting the upwards pressure on prices.

Rental trends are becoming increasingly diverse across Australia. At a macro level, rents are still rising at well above average rates. While annual rental growth has eased from a recent peak of 9.4% in November last year to 8.7% over the 12 months ending March 2022, the quarterly pace of growth has rebounded through the first quarter of the year, from 1.9% in Dec 2021 to 2.6%
in March 2022.

The rebound is partly seasonal as rental trends tend to be stronger through the first quarter of the year, but there are other factors at play including stronger conditions across the medium to high
density rental sector.

The rate of growth in unit rents has strengthened to reach a cyclical high of 3.0% in the March quarter, rising at a materially faster pace than house rents (2.4%). The stronger rental conditions across the unit sector demonstrates a remarkable turnaround in rental conditions across higher density markets, where rents fell sharply through the first nine months of the pandemic.

“Through the pandemic to-date, capital city house rents have risen by 13.8% compared with a 3.4% rise in unit values,” Mr Lawless said.

 

“The net result is that renting a unit is substantially more affordable than renting a house. This affordability advantage, along with a gradual return of overseas migration, employees progressively
returning to offices and inner city precincts regaining some vibrancy, are likely key factors pushing unit rents higher,” Mr Lawless said.

Sydney is now recording the strongest lift in unit rents, up 8.3% over the 12 months to March following a 7.2% peak to trough fall in the first half of the pandemic. Similarly, Melbourne unit rents are
up 6.9% over the past year after posting an 8.5% peak to trough fall.

With national rents up 2.6% over the March quarter and housing values rising by a lower 2.4%, gross yields have posted a rare rise in March, up two basis points from a record low of 3.21% in January and February to 3.23%. If rents continue to outpace housing values, which is likely if the housing market moves into a downturn, yields will continue to recover.

The housing market has transitioned from an upswing generally characterised by a strong and broad-based rise across the regions of Australia, to one best described as multi-speed.

At one end of the spectrum Australia’s two largest cities, Sydney and Melbourne, are recording flat to falling housing values, while at the other is Brisbane and Adelaide, where the quarterly pace of growth continues to rise at an annualised pace of more than 20%. Perth too is re-accelerating off a low base, which can, at least partially, be attributed to state borders re-opening, and regional markets are mostly strong as population growth runs up against low available supply levels.

Despite the diversity, the outlook for housing remains skewed to the downside.

 

• Rising fixed term mortgage rates and the prospect of higher
variable mortgage rates later this year are only part of the reason why housing markets are likely to soften as 2022 progresses. Other factors include:

Affordability – With housing values rising so much more than incomes over the past two years, it has become harder for prospective buyers to access the market. Saving for a deposit and funding transactional costs is a significant hurdle for a growing number of prospective buyers.

Inflation – Higher costs of living are also likely to weigh on housing demand. Higher inflation implies less disposable income and lower household savings which could make it harder for prospective buyers to raise a deposit and demonstrate their ability to service a new loan commitment. A surge in household savings through the pandemic has been a supporting factor for housing demand, however as the economy returns to the new normal, households are saving less; a trend likely to become more pronounced through the year.

Higher supply – Both newly constructed dwellings and a rise in advertised listings is likely to gradually skew housing market conditions in favour of buyers, providing more choice and an opportunity to negotiate with less urgency around decision making.

Sentiment – Consumer confidence has taken a turn for the worse over recent months, with the weekly reading from ANZ and Roy Morgan falling to the lowest level in about 18 months. Historically, consumer sentiment and housing market activity have shown a close relationship. Below average sentiment, along with slowing housing markets and the prospect of rising interest
rates, is likely to cause prospective buyers to think twice before engaging with the housing market.

However, there are other factors that should help to offset the downside risk.

• A strengthening economy, low jobless rate and rising income growth – This should help to keep a floor under housing demand and keep the number of distressed listings to a
minimum through a downturn.

• A new round of incentives for first home buyers – In the leadup to the federal election both major political parties have already announced additional support for first home buyers in
the form of an extension to low deposit home loan guarantees. Historically, first home buyers have reacted positively to stimulus measures.

A return of migration – Higher overseas migration is a net positive for housing demand. The most immediate flow through is likely to be seen in higher rental demand which could
incentivise investors and, in the longer term, flow through to purchasing demand from permanent migrants.

 

CoreLogic is the largest independent provider of property information, analytics and property-related risk management services in Australia and New Zealand.

Methodology

The CoreLogic Hedonic Home Value Index is calculated using a hedonic regression methodology that addresses the issue of compositional bias associated with median price and other measures. In simple terms, the index is calculated using recent sales data combined with information about the attributes of individual properties such as the number of bedrooms and bathrooms, land area and geographical context of the dwelling. By separating each property into its various formational and locational attributes, observed sales values for each property can be distinguished between those attributed to the property’s attributes and those resulting from changes in the underlying residential property market. Additionally, by understanding the value associated with each attribute of a given property, this methodology can be used to estimate the value of dwellings with known characteristics for which there is no recent sales price by observing the characteristics and sales prices of other dwellings which have recently transacted. It then follows that changes in the market value of the entire residential property stock can be accurately tracked through time. The detailed methodological information can be found at:

https://www.corelogic.com.au/research/rp-data-corelogichome-value-index-methodology/

CoreLogic is able to produce a consistently accurate and robust Hedonic Index due to its extensive property related database, which includes transaction data for every home sale within every state and territory. CoreLogic augments this data with recent sales advice from real estate industry professionals, listings information and attribute data collected from a variety of sources.

 

About the data
Median value refer to the 50th percentile of valuation estimates observed in the region Growth rates are based on changes in the CoreLogic Home Value index, which take into account value changes across the market Only metrics with a minimum of 20 sales observations and a low standard error on the median value have been included Data is at March 2022

 

 

Median value refer to the 50th percentile of valuation estimates observed in the region
Growth rates are based on changes in the CoreLogic Home Value index, which take into account value changes across the market
Only metrics with a minimum of 20 sales observations and a low standard error on the median value have been included
Data is at February 2022

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Sydney and Melbourne House Prices Set to Fall in 2025, While Perth Soars

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Sydney House Prices 2025

Sydney and Melbourne House Prices Set to Fall in 2025, While Perth Soars

 

By Ian Rogers

Australia’s property market is poised for a dynamic shift in 2025, with house prices in Sydney and Melbourne expected to slide, while Perth leads the nation in value growth, according to SQM Research’s latest Boom and Bust Report.

The report projects national housing prices to rise between 1 and 4 percent under its base case scenario. This outlook hinges on mid-year interest rate cuts, continued population growth exceeding 500,000 people, and inflation remaining under control. Globally, the forecast also factors in a potential resolution to the war in Ukraine and easing tensions in the Middle East.

Under these conditions, Perth is forecast to outpace other capitals in price growth, while Sydney and Melbourne could see declines of up to 5 percent.

A Market Shaped by Population and Supply Shortages

Louis Christopher, Managing Director of SQM Research, points to strong population growth and a continued shortage of new dwellings as key factors shaping the market in 2025.

“We are not anticipating much of a change in these current trends,” Christopher said, emphasising the continued housing supply strain that has contributed to price surges in certain markets.

The report lays out four potential scenarios based on varying economic conditions and government policies, painting a picture of both opportunity and risk for homebuyers and investors alike.

CoreLogic’s Head of Research, Eliza Owen, noted that buyer demand is unlikely to surge in early 2025.

“Melbourne, Hobart, Darwin, and Canberra have all been in decline recently, a trend that may persist,” she explained. “Sydney could also slip into a mild downturn due to affordability constraints and limited borrowing capacity amid high-interest-rate settings.”

While growth in Perth and Brisbane has begun to slow, the market remains resilient. Adelaide, which has seen steady gains, could also experience some cooling in momentum. However, if household finances improve in the latter half of 2025, demand could pick up— especially in Melbourne and Hobart, where property values have already taken a significant hit.

Where Prices Are Headed in 2025

According to economist Marcel Thieliant from Capital Economics, house prices are likely to rise by 5 percent by December 2025 compared to the previous year.

“Our leading index for house prices still signals solid growth in the months ahead, aided by potential rate cuts,” Thieliant said. However, he cautioned that with affordability at its worst levels since the early 1990s, any price increases are expected to be moderate.

The Interest Rate Effect

Interest rates remain the critical wildcard in the 2025 housing market equation. Christopher anticipates that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will lower rates by 0.25 to 0.5 percentage points by mid-year as inflation eases and economic growth remains sluggish.

If rate cuts materialize, SQM Research predicts an immediate boost in consumer sentiment, which could stabilize declining prices in Sydney and Melbourne.

Westpac and NAB expect the first RBA cut to come in May, while Commonwealth Bank and ANZ forecast an earlier move in February.

Westpac’s Chief Economist, Luci Ellis, believes the RBA may “front-load” its cuts, delivering consecutive reductions in late May and early July. However, she notes that the central bank’s decision-making will hinge on consistent evidence of declining inflation.

Boom or Bust? Possible Price Scenarios

The SQM report outlines a range of possible outcomes for 2025:

  • Best-case scenario: If rate cuts come earlier than May, house prices could surge, with Perth rising by up to 20 percent and Brisbane seeing gains of up to 16 percent.
  • Moderate scenario: If there are no rate cuts but population growth remains strong, Sydney, Melbourne, Hobart, and Canberra could see sharper declines, while Perth, Brisbane, Adelaide, and Darwin continue growing.
  • Worst-case scenario: If population growth slows below 400,000 and rate cuts do not materialize, Sydney and Melbourne could suffer deeper losses of up to 10 — albeit at a slower pace.

As for the political landscape, next year’s federal election is unlikely to have a short-term impact on house prices. However, an election campaign centered on housing and migration policies could set the stage for significant shifts in the years to follow.

For now, Australia’s property market stands at a crossroads, with interest rates, population trends, and economic conditions shaping what could be a year of stark contrasts between cities.

 

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Rushed Planning Changes Risk Worsening NSW Housing Crisis

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NSW Housing Crisis

Rushed Planning Changes Risk Worsening NSW Housing Crisis

 

By Jeff Gibbs

The peak body for local government in NSW, Local Government NSW (LGNSW), has acknowledged the bipartisan efforts of the NSW Premier and Opposition Leader to tackle the state’s housing crisis but has issued a strong warning against rushed planning changes that could have unintended consequences.

Concerns Over Timing and Impact on Housing Supply

LGNSW President, Mayor Phyllis Miller OAM, stressed that while collaboration between all levels of government is critical, now is the wrong time to overhaul the planning system.

“Reviewing the planning system now is poor timing. It will create further uncertainty for all stakeholders and could stall housing construction even further, as developers may delay projects in anticipation of potentially more favourable outcomes under a future framework,” Mayor Miller said.

This concern highlights the risk that uncertainty in the development sector may lead to a slowdown in housing supply, further exacerbating the affordability and availability crisis gripping the state.

Infrastructure Contributions Must Be Protected

Mayor Miller also cautioned against any potential moves to scrap or defer essential infrastructure contributions, which fund critical community assets such as:

  • Roads and transport infrastructure
  • Green spaces and parks
  • Swimming pools and recreation facilities
  • Community services and local amenities

“Communities need housing and essential infrastructure to be delivered together. They should not be forced to subsidise the profits of developers,” Mayor Miller stated.

The private development sector’s concerns about regulatory and cost barriers are acknowledged, but LGNSW insists that funding solutions must be balanced and sustainable, ensuring that new developments come with the necessary infrastructure to support growing populations.

Local Government Must Have a Seat at the Table

LGNSW is also calling for greater inclusion of local government in discussions about planning reform, arguing that councils play an essential role in the housing solution.

“We know councils approve about 97% of all Development Applications (DAs), and local councils understand their communities better than anyone. We are at the forefront of local planning and are best placed to provide feedback on where real improvements can be made,” Mayor Miller said.

This statement reinforces the importance of local councils in balancing housing growth with liveability, ensuring that new developments are strategically located, well-planned, and supported by essential infrastructure.

Call for Ongoing Consultation and Collaboration

Mayor Miller confirmed that LGNSW has written to both the Government and the Opposition, urging collaborative engagement in shaping planning reforms.

“We are committed to working constructively with all levels of government, but planning reforms must be well thought out, consultative, and designed to deliver real solutions—not just fast-tracked for political convenience,” she said.

Key Takeaways

  • Poorly timed planning reforms could stall housing construction rather than accelerate it.
  • Scrapping infrastructure contributions could leave communities without essential services.
  • Local councils approve 97% of all DAs and must be included in the decision-making process.
  • LGNSW urges bipartisan collaboration to ensure planning reforms deliver sustainable and community-focused solutions.

As the debate over NSW’s housing crisis continues, LGNSW remains committed to advocating for balanced, practical, and long-term solutions that address housing affordability while protecting community infrastructure and liveability.

 

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China’s Property Crash: A Cautionary Tale for Australia’s Housing Market

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China's Property Crash Real Estate News

China’s Property Crash: A Cautionary Tale for Australia’s Housing Market

 

By Ian Rogers

China’s ongoing property collapse, led by giants like Evergrande, has caused staggering economic losses, with implications that should resonate loudly in Australia. As one of our largest trading partners, China’s struggles are a stark warning about the fragility of real estate markets and the broader economy.

The Scale of China’s Crisis

The fallout from China’s property downturn is immense. A Barclays Bank report estimates the total wealth destruction at $US18 trillion ($AU29 trillion), or approximately $US60,000 per Chinese household. This loss surpasses the US property crash of 2008 that triggered the global financial crisis. With 80 million vacant homes — seven times the total number of Australian dwellings — and declining property prices, the situation remains grim.

Harvard economist Kenneth Rogoff and IMF co-author Yuanchen Yang highlight that China’s overbuilding spree has created a massive oversupply of homes and infrastructure. Construction accounted for 31% of China’s GDP in 2021, a precarious level seen before the property collapses in Spain and Ireland.

With a declining working-age population and soaring home price-to-income ratios in cities like Beijing and Shanghai, China’s real estate market faces a bleak outlook. The ripple effects include a weakened construction sector, falling economic output, and reduced demand for raw materials, including Australian iron ore and coal.

Implications for Australia

China’s property woes directly impact Australia’s economy. Slumping iron ore prices, now below $US100 per tonne, are reducing national income and pushing the federal budget back into deficit. The Australian dollar has also dropped below 62 US cents, a level not seen since the early 2000s.

Economist Chris Richardson warns Australians to pay closer attention to China’s struggles. “China’s demographic shift is remarkable — it’s ageing fast, with birth rates plummeting due to unaffordable housing,” he notes, citing home-price-to-income ratios in Beijing and Shanghai that far exceed those of London or New York.

Parallels with Australia’s Market

While Australia’s property market differs in key respects, the similarities are striking. Like China, Australia has seen skyrocketing house prices, unaffordable deposits, and soaring household debt. Housing costs have contributed to declining birth rates, with prospective buyers increasingly reliant on family wealth to enter the market.

Unlike China, Australia faces a housing undersupply, driven by strong population growth through migration. However, as the COVID-19 pandemic showed, disruptions to migration can quickly shift the supply-demand balance.

A Potential Domino Effect

China’s property crash poses a broader risk to Australia. By reducing national income, economic growth, and federal revenue, it could create conditions ripe for a housing downturn here. With high household debt and limited government debt, Australia’s ability to respond to a housing crash may be constrained if external shocks arise.

Lessons to Learn

China’s real estate collapse is a warning: unchecked property markets, excessive debt, and demographic shifts can destabilise economies. For Australia, maintaining a balanced housing market and managing external dependencies are critical to avoiding a similar fate. While rising prices have defined Australia’s crisis, the conditions for a potential crash are present — and China’s experience underscores how quickly fortunes can change.

 

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2025 Property Price Forecast: A Window of Opportunity for Buyers Amid Slowing Growth

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2025 Property Price Forecast

2025 Property Price Forecast: A Window of Opportunity for Buyers Amid Slowing Growth

 

By Ian Rogers

The housing market in 2025 is set to offer buyers a rare opportunity to enter before the next surge in property prices, as new forecasts point to a slowing in price growth across the nation.

According to the PropTrack Property Market Outlook, released today, national home prices are expected to rise modestly between 1% and 4%, a slower pace than the 5.5% growth recorded in 2024. Contributing factors include higher interest rates, increased housing stock, and affordability challenges.

Market Dynamics Favour Buyers

Cameron Kusher, director of economic research at PropTrack, explained the conditions behind the easing market:

“With the rate of price growth slowing and interest rates expected to remain higher for longer, combined with a greater number of properties for sale, 2025 will likely see weaker price growth compared to recent years.”

The surge in new listings throughout 2024, especially in Sydney and Melbourne, has pushed total listing volumes to decade highs. This increased supply is expected to reduce competition, giving buyers more choice and less urgency, which will help temper price pressures.

Capital City Forecasts

While property prices are not expected to decline significantly, the double-digit growth experienced in smaller capitals this year will likely subside:

  • Perth: Forecasted growth of 3–6% (down from 18.7% in 2024).
  • Adelaide: 3–6% growth (down from 14.6%).
  • Brisbane: 2–5% growth (down from 12.6%).
  • Sydney: 1–4% growth.
  • Darwin, Canberra, Hobart: 0–3% growth.
  • Melbourne: Between a 1% decline and a 2% increase.

Interest Rate Outlook Key to Market Movement

The slow growth forecast hinges on delayed interest rate cuts, which were continually pushed back throughout 2024. Most major banks, including Westpac, ANZ, and NAB, predict the first cuts in May 2025, while the Commonwealth Bank forecasts a potential February cut.

“If rate cuts occur later than expected, demand will remain subdued initially in 2025,” Mr. Kusher said. “But once rates start to fall and borrowing capacities increase, we anticipate a lift in demand.”

Federal Election and Buyer Sentiment

The federal election, anticipated before May, is expected to further dampen housing activity early in the year. Historically, housing markets slow in the months leading up to elections, as buyers adopt a wait-and-see approach.

However, pent-up demand is likely to surge once rates fall, fuelled by buyers with substantial equity built during the market’s recent boom. Over the past five years, national dwelling prices have risen 47.9%, with Adelaide, Brisbane, and Perth leading gains of over 80%.

The Big Picture

While 2025 may not bring the explosive price growth of recent years, the market remains resilient. Slower growth and higher stock levels present a strategic opportunity for buyers ready to act before conditions shift again.

As affordability constraints ease and rate cuts reinvigorate demand, the window for favourable buying conditions may close quickly, making early 2025 a crucial time for market entrants.

 

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“Australian lightweight champion from lil ol’ Swan Bay”

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Sunny McLean with his coach, Scott Smith. Boxing Northern Rivers News

“Australian lightweight champion from lil ol’ Swan Bay”

 

By Samantha Elley

Maddog boxing’s Sunny McLean has been going from strength to strength this past year, grabbing titles from each of the events he has been fighting in.

Sunny McLean and his coach, Scott Smith, who runs Maddox Boxing, were recently picked to represent Queensland as the fighter and coach team to compete in the national titles in Gosford.

Sunny won all his elimination bouts and beat the NSW champion in the gold medal fight, to become the newly crowned Australian champion in the lightweight division.

They were surprised with a visit from Jason and Andrew Moloney, world champion professional boxers.

“Every state in Australia was there with all the best fighters and the (Moloney brothers) came to support us, so we felt so special,” said Scott.

“They came to help me prepare Sunny for his last two fights in this event.”

Sunny was competing for Queensland as he already holds the title of QLD/NSW interstate champion.

“His first opponent, the referee stopped the fight in the 3rd round,” said Scott.

“His second opponent was the favourite from Tasmania and Sunny won that fight to go through for the gold medal against the NSW champion.

“Andy (co-trainer) and I worked out a plan to beat him and Sunny did exactly what he was asked and never last control of the situation.

“He is now the Australian lightweight champion from lil ol Swan Bay.”

 

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