AUS passes 2m Covid cases, hits 1-in-10 NSW & VIC residents

Australia has just passed two million official Covid cases today (Thursday), with one-in-10 New South Wales and Victorian residents now living with a diagnosis leading into the upcoming Federal Election, the latest VaxEnomicTM Forecaster from C-suite strategy group Provocate reveals.

Provocate Managing Director Troy Bilsborough said it represented a doubling of cases in under two weeks since Provocate first revealed Australia had hit the one-million case mark last Monday (10 January 2022).

“It took Australia two years to reach its first one million Covid cases and under two weeks to reach its second,” said Mr Bilsborough – a former senior advisor to Federal Health, Aged Care and Child Care Ministers.

“Healthcare influenced more votes than any other issue at the last Federal election and two million Australians now living with a Covid diagnosis will likely entrench that.

“This week’s negative polling on the Federal Government’s handling of the pandemic and economy continues to support our prediction that Covid and health will likely sway votes – and even the result – at May’s election.

“The arrival of a heavily-mutated variant like Omicron within five months of Delta also means there’s every chance Australia could be facing another outbreak from another new variant heading into the Federal Election campaign.”

“However, the biggest threat to business and voter confidence is not the virus itself, but politically-opposed state and Federal governments making decisions based on electionomics, not epidemiology or the economy.

It comes as top US Government Covid adviser Anthony Fauci also warned on Tuesday Omicron may not be the end of Covid with further mutations possible, supporting Provocate’s recent prediction Australia could be facing another virus variant in time for the next Federal election, slated for May 2022.

AUS passes 2m Covid cases, hits 1-in-10 NSW & VIC resident

“The big unknown is whether Covid continues to matter when Australia is predicted to go to the polls in May – and whether opposition parties can continue to maintain voter dissatisfaction for that long.

“Much of this will hinge on how the longer-term impacts of Covid for the millions of Australians who now caught the virus, and how much onus attention medical, patient and worker representations place on having them recognised as chronic illness.”

About 90 per cent of total Australian cases have been recorded in the seven weeks since Omicron’s arrival in late November. That equates to an 800%+ increase in recorded cases in less than seven weeks, noting actual infections in the community were likely double or more that due to restricted testing options.

Provocate last week predicted the rapid transition from Covid as a public health and economic threat to a personal problem for millions of Australians would negatively impact voter views towards the Federal Government leading into the Election.

This was supported by this week’s Resolve Political Monitor, which showed since the May 2021 Federal Budget:

· a -22 point decline in the Federal Government’s lead on handling of Covid and the pandemic.

· a -13 point decline in the Federal Government’s lead on handling of economic management.

· a -10 point decline in the Federal Government’s lead on handling of health & aged care, with the Opposition now in front.

· a -5 point decline in the Federal Government’s primary vote, with the Opposition taking the lead for the first time during that period.

· A -16 point decline in the Federal Government’s lead on Preferred Prime Minister.

Figure 1 Source: Provocate analysis of ANU ‘The 2019 Election Study’