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Coalition Maintains Narrow Lead Over ALP During Australia Day Long Weekend: L-NP 52% cf. ALP 48%
Coalition Maintains Narrow Lead Over ALP During Australia Day Long Weekend: L-NP 52% cf. ALP 48%
By Jeff Gibbs
The latest Roy Morgan survey, conducted from January 20–26, 2025, indicates that the Coalition Government would retain power with a slim majority if a Federal Election were held today. Despite shifting primary vote patterns, the two-party preferred vote remains unchanged at 52% for the Coalition compared to 48% for the ALP, underlining a consistent but tightly contested political landscape.
Primary Vote Movements and Trends
The survey revealed notable shifts in primary voting intention among major and minor parties over the past week:
- Coalition (L-NP): Support dropped by 1.5%, down to 40.5%, signalling a slight erosion in its voter base.
- ALP: Gained 1%, increasing its primary support to 29.5%, reflecting a slight rebound in Labor’s appeal.
- Greens: Experienced a 1.5% decline, dropping to 11.5%, marking their lowest level of support since late 2023.
- One Nation: Support rose by 2% to 6%, suggesting growing traction among right-leaning voters dissatisfied with the Coalition.
- Independents: Support increased slightly, up 0.5% to 9%, reflecting continued appeal among voters seeking alternatives to traditional parties.
- Other Parties: Dropped by 0.5%, down to 3.5%, showing minimal impact from smaller, less-established groups.
These movements among minor parties effectively balanced each other out, leaving the two-party preferred vote unchanged from the previous week.
Key Influences on Voting Patterns
While the survey found no direct impact on the two-party preferred result, several prominent national and global issues may have influenced voter sentiment in the past week:
- Concerns About Rising Antisemitism: Public discussions about an uptick in antisemitism within Australia have drawn attention to how political leaders and parties are addressing social cohesion. Greens Leader Adam Bandt has faced criticism for his perceived silence on the matter.
- Ceasefire Between Israel and Hamas: The highly publicised ceasefire brought temporary resolution to ongoing tensions in drew mixed reactions and may have contributed to the Greens’ declining support.
- Annual Australia Day Debate: Discussions surrounding the future of Australia Day and debates over its appropriateness remain a polarizing issue. While this has not significantly shifted the two-party preferred vote, it remains a point of contention among voters, particularly within younger and more progressive demographics.
Closer Contest Under 2022 Preference Allocation
When preferences are allocated based on voting patterns from the 2022 Federal Election, the gap between the two major parties narrows further:
- Coalition: 51% (down 1%)
- ALP: 49% (up 1%)
This closer result highlights the competitive nature of the political landscape, with the Coalition’s lead remaining vulnerable to small swings in voter sentiment.
Greens Facing Challenges
The Greens’ 1.5% drop to 11.5% is a key finding in this survey, as it marks their lowest level of support in over a year. Political analysts attribute this to:
- Leadership silence on critical issues such as antisemitism.
- Divisive comments from Adam Bandt about international conflicts, which may have alienated some of their progressive voter base.
- A potential shift of environmentally focused voters to Independents or smaller progressive parties.
Rise in Support for One Nation
Support for One Nation rose by 2% to 6%, the party’s strongest performance in recent months. This surge may reflect:
- Dissatisfaction among conservative voters with the Coalition’s performance, particularly on issues such as economic management and cultural debates.
- Increased attention to policies championed by One Nation on issues like immigration and national security, which resonate with segments of the right-leaning voter base.
Undecided Voters
The percentage of undecided voters dropped to 6.5% (down 2% from the previous week), reflecting increased certainty among the electorate. These voters could play a decisive role in narrowing or widening the gap between the major parties as the political climate evolves.
Survey Methodology and Sample Details
This Roy Morgan survey interviewed a representative cross-section of 1,567 Australian electors from January 20–26, 2025. Key points about the methodology include:
- The survey was conducted during a week featuring significant political and social developments.
- Preferences were allocated based on both 2025 responses and voting patterns from the 2022 Federal Election for comparative insights.
- The margin of error ensures reliability, but comparisons between surveys must account for the timing of events and broader political contexts.
CEO Commentary
Michele Levine, CEO of Roy Morgan, provided a comprehensive analysis of the survey findings: “Despite the consistent two-party preferred result, primary vote movements indicate shifts among minor parties and voter groups. The Coalition’s slight dip and One Nation’s rise suggest some dissatisfaction among conservative voters. Similarly, the Greens’ drop to their lowest level in over a year reflects challenges in retaining their progressive voter base.”
“Key issues of the week, including rising antisemitism, the Israel-Hamas ceasefire, and debates about Australia Day, did not significantly impact the two-party preferred vote. However, the Greens’ positioning on these topics may have contributed to their declining support.”
Levine concluded: “With the two-party preferred gap narrowing to 51% vs. 49% under 2022 preferences, the Federal Election remains highly competitive. Both major parties must remain vigilant in addressing key voter concerns, particularly as movements among minor parties and Independents continue to shape the political landscape.”
Key Takeaways
The latest Roy Morgan survey underscores the following:
- Stable Two-Party Preferred Vote: The Coalition maintains a slim lead, but the race remains competitive.
- Movements Among Minor Parties: Shifts in support for the Greens and One Nation highlight changing dynamics within the electorate.
- Closer Race Under 2022 Preferences: The narrowing margin to 51% vs. 49% suggests volatility in voter loyalty.
- Key Issues: Social and cultural debates continue to influence voter sentiment, even without shifting overall results.
As the political environment evolves, these findings reflect a dynamic electoral landscape heading into the rest of 2025.
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