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SEVEN MEGATRENDS THAT WILL SHAPE THE NEXT 20 YEARS

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SEVEN MEGATRENDS THAT WILL SHAPE THE NEXT 20 YEARS

A once-in-a-decade report from CSIRO, Australia’s national science agency, identifies seven global megatrends that hold the key to the challenges and opportunities ahead.
With an outlook to 2042, Our Future World revisits CSIRO’s ground-breaking 2012 report of the same name, exploring the geopolitical, economic, social, technological and environmental forces unfolding around the world, predicting their likely impact on Australia’s people, businesses and governments.
The seven global megatrends are: Adapting to climate change; Leaner, cleaner and greener; The escalating health imperative; Geopolitical shifts; Diving into digital; Increasingly autonomous and Unlocking the human dimension.
CSIRO Chief Executive Dr Larry Marshall said megatrends help us to understand the challenges and massive opportunities that will shape our future.
“Australia is at a pivotal point. There is a tidal wave of disruption on the way, and it’s critical we take steps now to get ahead of it,” Dr Marshall said.
“From resource scarcity to drug resistant superbugs, disrupted global trade, and an increasingly unstable climate threatening our health and way of life – these are just some of the challenges we face.
“But these challenges also tell us where the most powerful innovation can be found, when we see a different future and leverage science to create it.
“Australia has the highest wind and solar capacity of any developed nation and a wealth of critical energy minerals – we can be a leader in feeding the world’s hunger for clean energy.
“The next wave of digital innovation will generate $10–15 trillion globally.
Australia can tap into this to transform existing jobs and create new jobs and wealth while leveraging Artificial Intelligence to solve some of our greatest challenges, like outthinking bushfires, accelerating vaccine development, predicting drought, or stabilising our energy grid.
“We have the opportunity now to use science to invent the kind of world we want to live in – but we have to act, and we have to do it together.
“Trust in science led Australia’s response to COVID-19, and science can help us lead a Team Australia response to the challenges ahead,” he said.
Our Future World report co-lead author Dr Stefan Hajkowicz said: “We analysed thousands of data points collected over decades.
“Some of the trends we identified have been widely discussed, while others are newer and directly related to our experiences during the pandemic.
“We are, for example, just beginning to understand the potential long-term impacts of the pandemic on mental health and chronic illness.
“We anticipate that while the pandemic sped up digital transformation, the real explosion in our capability is yet to come. In this environment, digital skills will become more valuable, but rather than replacing human intelligence, technologies like AI will assist us in doing our work better.”

Our Future World co-lead author Dr Claire Naughtin said: “Trust emerged as a central theme – trust in institutions, technology, supply chains and security will all be key issues over the coming two decades.
“Currently just under 70% of Australians do not trust AI systems but would be more willing to use these systems if appropriate ethical measures were in place.
“This latest update on the global megatrends gives us line of sight as to what has changed over the past decade and a view to the coming decades.
“Like aircraft engineers would use wind tunnels to test the robustness of new aircrafts, we can use these megatrends to develop, test and refine future strategies to ensure they are robust, whatever the future holds.”

Snapshot of the megatrends: 

  1. Adapting to climate change: with natural disasters expected to cost the Australian economy almost three times more in 2050 than in 2017, we can expect to be living in a more volatile climate, characterised by unprecedented weather events
  2. Leaner, cleaner and greener: an increased focus on potential solutions to our resource constraints through synthetic biology, alternative proteins, advanced recycling and the net-zero energy transition. By 2025, renewables are expected to surpass coal as the primary energy source.
  3. The escalating health imperative: the post-pandemic world has exacerbated existing health challenges posed by an ageing population and growing burden of chronic disease.  One in five Australians report high or very high levels of psychological distress and there is heightened risk of infectious diseases and pathogens resistant to modern antibiotics. There is now a burning platform to also respond to our health risks and improve health outcomes.
  4. Geopolitical shifts: an uncertain future, characterised by disrupted patterns of global trade, geopolitical tensions and growing investment in defence. While the global economy shrunk by 3.2% in 2020, global military spend reached an all-time high of $2.9 trillion and Australia saw a 13% increase in cybercrime reported relative to the previous year.
  5. Diving into digital: the pandemic-fuelled a boom in digitisation, with teleworking, telehealth, online shopping and digital currencies becoming mainstream. Forty percent of Australians now work remotely on a regular basis and the future demand for digital workers expected to increase by 79% from 2020 to 2025.
  6. Increasing autonomous: there has been an explosion in artificial intelligence (AI) discoveries and applications across practically all industry sectors over the past several years. Within the science domain the use of AI is rising with the number of peer-reviewed AI publications increasing nearly 12 times from 2000 to 2019.
  7. Unlocking the human dimension: a strong consumer and citizen push for decision makers to consider trust, transparency, fairness and environmental and social governance. While Australia saw a record level increase in public trust in institutions during the pandemic, this ‘trust bubble’ has since burst, with societal trust in business dropping by 7.9% and trust in government declining by 14.8% from 2020-21.

 

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Australian unemployment dropped in March as part-time jobs surged; but this caused an increase in under-employment

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Australian unemployment dropped in March as part-time jobs surged; but this caused an increase in under-employment

 

In March 2024, ‘real’ Australian unemployment dropped 78,000 to 1,358,000 (down 0.5% to 8.7% of the workforce) as employment reached an all-time high of over 14.2 million.

However, the composition of the workforce changed – part-time employment surged 295,000 (up 6.1%) to 5,164,000 (a new record high). Unfortunately, there was a substantial decrease in full-time employment, down 256,000 (down 2.7%) to 9,103,000 as the composition of the employment market changed significantly.

The rise in part-time employment was correlated to the increase in under-employment, up 75,000 to 1576,000 (10.1%, up 0.5%). In total a massive 2.93 million Australians (18.8%, unchanged) were unemployed or under-employed in March.

The March Roy Morgan Unemployment estimates were obtained by surveying an Australia-wide cross section of people aged 14+. A person is classified as unemployed if they are looking for work, no matter when. The ‘real’ unemployment rate is presented as a percentage of the workforce (employed & unemployed).

  • Employment reaches new record high of over 14.2 million in March:

Australian employment increased 39,000 to 14,267,000 in March. Part-time employment drove the increase, up 295,000 (up 6.1%) to a new record high of 5,164,000 while full-time employment dropped 256,000 (down 2.7%) to 9,103,000.

  • Australian Unemployment dropped in March with 78,000 fewer looking for work:

In March 1,358,000 Australians were unemployed (8.7% of the workforce, down 0.5%), a decrease of 78,000 from February driven by fewer people looking for part-time work. There were 763,000 (down 70,000) looking for part-time work and 595,000 (down 8,000) looking for full-time work.

  • Overall unemployment and under-employment was unchanged in March at 18.8%:

In addition to the unemployed, a further 1.58 million Australians (10.1% of the workforce) were under-employed, i.e. working part-time but looking for more work, up 75,000 from February. In total 2.93 million Australians (18.8% of the workforce) were either unemployed or under-employed in March.

  • Comparisons with a year ago show rapidly increasing workforce driving employment growth:

The workforce in March was 15,625,000 (down 39,000 from February, but up a massive 641,000 from a year ago) – comprised of 14,267,000 employed Australians (up 39,000 from a month ago) and 1,358,000 unemployed Australians looking for work (down 78,000).

Although unemployment and under-employment remain high at 2.93 million, there has been a surge in employment over the last year – up by 693,000 to a new record high of 14,267,000.

Australian unemployment

Roy Morgan Unemployment & Under-employment (2019-2024)
Source: Roy Morgan Single Source January 2019 – March 2024. Average monthly interviews 5,000.
Note: Roy Morgan unemployment estimates are actual data while the ABS estimates are seasonally adjusted.

Compared to four years ago in early March 2020, in March 2024 there were almost 800,000 more Australians either unemployed or under-employed (+3.2% points) even though overall employment (14,267,000) is almost 1.4 million higher than it was pre-COVID-19 (12,872,000).

ABS Comparison

Roy Morgan’s unemployment figure of 8.7% is more than double the ABS estimate of 3.7% for February but is approaching the combined ABS unemployment and under-employment figure of 10.3%.

The latest monthly figures from the ABS indicate that the people working fewer hours in February 2024 due to illness, injury or sick leave was 521,700. This is around 140,000 higher than the pre-pandemic average of the five years to February 2019 (382,100) – a difference of 139,600.

If this higher than pre-pandemic average of workers (139,600) is added to the combined ABS unemployment and under-employment figure of 1,533,000 we find a total of 1,673,600 people could be considered unemployed or under-employed, equivalent to 11.3% of the workforce.

 

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Construction Giant LVX Global Group Enters Administration, Putting 25 Jobs at Risk

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Construction Giant LVX Global Group Enters Administration, Putting 25 Jobs at Risk

 

In a significant development within the Australian construction sector, a prominent company, formerly valued at $30 million just nine months ago, has entered administration, placing 25 jobs in jeopardy.

LVX Global Group, a leading infrastructure engineering firm headquartered in Australia, took a drastic step on Wednesday morning as five of its subsidiary companies appointed administrators in a bid to revamp their financial situation. Specialising in strategy, engineering, and project management within the building sector, LVX operates primarily from its headquarters in Adelaide and boasts a global presence across more than 20 countries.

Having contributed to major national projects such as Brisbane Airport and Sydney’s Botanical Gardens, LVX has also collaborated with the Sunshine Coast Council on crucial initiatives like lighting, communications, and electrical services for the Mooloolaba seafront. Despite its illustrious portfolio, LVX now finds itself in dire straits, with administrators actively seeking potential buyers for the entire business or select assets while the fate of 25 employees hangs precariously in the balance.

LVX Global Group CEO Corey Gray

LVX Global Group CEO Corey Gray

The company’s decline from its former glory is particularly striking given recent reports suggesting plans for a lucrative stock exchange debut through an initial public offering, which pegged its value at $30 million. Now, Ken Whittingham and Mark Robinson from insolvency firm Fort Restructuring have stepped in as administrators to navigate LVX through these turbulent times.

In their statement to news.com.au, the administrators indicated that while LVX has several national projects currently underway, decisions regarding their continuation remain pending. Expressing a commitment to explore all viable options, the administrators are actively pursuing a sale of LVX as a “going concern” and are open to considering a deed of company arrangement (DOCA) to potentially salvage the situation.

Amidst earlier plans for capital raising and optimistic revenue forecasts, LVX’s financial performance took a nosedive, with revenues totalling $13.3 million in the 2022 financial year—a significant increase from $7 million in the previous comparable period. Despite projections of $15 million in revenue for the 2023 financial year, internal presentations from last year painted a different picture, highlighting the company’s downward spiral.

LVX’s unfortunate downturn adds to a growing trend of national construction companies grappling with financial woes. Earlier instances include Rork Projects, facing debts nearing $30 million across multiple states, and Project Coordination, a seasoned industry player with half a century of operations, which succumbed to administration just two weeks ago, further underscoring the widespread crisis plaguing the construction sector.

 

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CSIRO invests $20 million to drive SME innovation

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CSIRO invests $20 million to drive SME innovation

 

Australia’s national science agency, CSIRO, has committed a substantial $20 million investment aimed at enhancing access to crucial research and development (R&D) opportunities for small to medium enterprises (SMEs), with the goal of fostering their growth and innovation.

This funding infusion will empower CSIRO’s SME Connect team to support up to 750 SMEs through an array of comprehensive programs and initiatives. These initiatives encompass facilitation, training, dollar-matched funding, and assistance for start-ups and SMEs seeking engagement in company-led research projects.

Among the supported programs is CSIRO Kick-Start, a flagship initiative of SME Connect. Since its inception in 2017, the Kick-Start program has facilitated over 280 company-led R&D projects, boasting alumni companies with a collective market value exceeding $2 billion.

Dr. Doug Hilton, Chief Executive of CSIRO, underscores the profound significance of this investment and its transformative potential for Australia’s critical SME sector. He emphasizes the pivotal role SMEs play in driving Australia’s future, serving as bastions of innovation and solutions to societal challenges.

Dr. Hilton states, “CSIRO’s fundamental role as the national science agency is to create benefits for Australia, including driving SME productivity, sustainability, and growth through enhanced access to R&D opportunities and research support, fostering a resilient and diverse economy.”

SMEs constitute the backbone of Australia’s economy, accounting for 99.8% of businesses, contributing over half of the gross domestic product (GDP), and employing 68% of the private sector workforce.

CSIRO’s SME Connect team has a proven track record of supporting start-ups and SMEs across various industry sectors, including technology, manufacturing, agriculture, mining, energy, health, and biosecurity.

Simon Hanson, Director of CSIRO’s SME Connect, highlights how this investment bolsters Australian innovation by providing practical avenues for SMEs to leverage the expertise and facilities of the national science agency. He stresses the importance of collaboration between industry and the research sector for the longevity and success of Australian SMEs.

Hanson notes, “This funding enables us to bridge the gap between industry and academia, fostering meaningful collaborations and facilitating innovation and growth within the SME ecosystem.”

Goterra, an award-winning start-up based in Canberra, exemplifies the success stories emerging from CSIRO’s SME Connect programs. Olympia Yarger, Founder of Goterra and a CSIRO Kick-Start alumni company, developed an innovative waste management system utilizing insects to process food waste, resulting in a 97% reduction in greenhouse gases.

Yarger lauds CSIRO’s Kick-Start program for connecting Goterra with leading scientists who provided world-class research capabilities and pivotal support in exploring business opportunities, alternative technological advancements, and industry connections.

For businesses intrigued by the potential of R&D to address their challenges, CSIRO’s SME Connect offers a suite of programs tailored to support R&D initiatives. These include CSIRO Kick-Start, Innovate to Grow, Generation STEM Links, RISE Accelerator, and the Collaboration Readiness Levels tool.

For further information on CSIRO’s SME Connect programs, visit their website here.

Sidebar:

  1. CSIRO’s commitment to fostering SME innovation through R&D funding.
  2. Success stories like Goterra, showcasing the tangible benefits of CSIRO’s programs for SMEs.
  3. The diverse range of industry sectors supported by CSIRO’s SME Connect initiatives, promoting innovation across various fields.

 

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